Is the US preparing for war? Pentagon’s fight for critical raw materials

Critical raw materials are clearly one of the most important issues for this administration, according to Americanist Rafał Michalski in an interview with E24. „Lithium and all other raw materials will be supported not only by the Department of Energy in the context of energy, but above all in the context of new technologies and defense,” he said.

Two hundred days, two billion dollars, and minerals

Even if it is not the most media-friendly topic, it is clearly a key issue in the US at the substantive level, Michalski said, adding that the Trump administration has been dealing with critical raw materials „consistently for 200 days.”

The numbers also point to this. Between 2020 and 2024, the Pentagon has allocated approximately $400 million to create a domestic supply chain for rare earth elements, Michalski said. In the One Big Beautiful Bill, which „has proven to be a flywheel,” as can now be assessed, „the Pentagon is getting $2 billion for this purpose right away, and another $5 billion by 2029.”

So we can clearly see that what is happening around the economy, specifically around rare earth elements, will revolve around the Pentagon. This is not a matter of energy, but of defense.
Rafał Michalski

In addition, in the context of the trade war between the US and China, in April, the PRC introduced controls on exports of tungsten to the United States. Tungsten is used, among other things, in the production of missiles. This had a major impact on the Department of Commerce and the Department of Energy, because „it turned out that if US-China relations deteriorate overnight, Americans are completely cut off from a specific element.”

An important change that has taken place in recent weeks was the expansion of the US list of critical minerals, which was compiled by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of the Interior. The new list includes 51 minerals, with six added: potassium, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead. This is the biggest change to the list since its introduction in 2018.

”It is not that this list has no formal significance, because all elements and raw materials that are considered critical raw materials are subject to an expedited administrative permitting process. That is the first thing. Secondly, only these elements and the extraction and processing of these elements may qualify for federal funding under a number of laws, such as the Defense Production Act (DPA) of 1950 (…) So we can see that this administration is very keen to build supply chains and invest in private companies,” commented Rafał Michalski.

The Department of War in response to a sense of conflict

The Pentagon has become the largest investor in the US, according to Michalski. But what are the recent moves by the US Department of Defense aimed at?

All the technology that the Department wants to develop requires these materials, so we are talking not only about technological expansion, but even about maintaining existing supplies. However, we do not know what specific solutions are being considered by the research division (which is supposed to broadly explore the potential of new technologies). This type of information was not even disclosed during the hearing on the budget bill, so if the officials themselves do not share the information, all we can do is wait for it to be declassified.
Rafał Michalski

The official statement from the Department of Defense is that it is primarily about the development of new technologies and artificial intelligence. In addition, in accordance with the purpose of this institution, investments are being made in the production of weapons and the development of modern combat technology, which requires the use of critical raw materials. „However, as is typical of the Pentagon, we will not learn any details,” Michalski commented.

”At the same time, the Pentagon is greatly simplifying the contracting system. It wants to ensure that, first of all, production can be faster and, secondly, that there is less bureaucracy involved. So, they clearly want to speed up the production of something, but to do so, they know they need a lot of minerals,” the Americanist assessed.

Doesn’t this look like preparing for war? This would be indicated by the acceleration of bureaucratic processes accompanied by increased investment. „In the current American political class, both older and younger, there is a sense of impending conflict with China,” said Michalski. It could be a proxy war, with Taiwan or another Asian country as the intermediary.

There is a feeling that if China feels very powerful, stronger than the United States, it will use its power.
Rafał Michalski

The Americans intend to surpass China by 2040 through energy, raw material, and technological independence. „And that is why there is a sense of fear, because we do not know what will happen by 2040,” added Michalski. According to Donald Trump, peace is possible if the US demonstrates its strength. „They won’t attack us if they think we are stronger” – this is the philosophy with which the current US president agrees.

Recently, the US Department of Defense was renamed the Department of War, which can be seen as a symbolic – but also strategic – move, perhaps also aimed at demonstrating the power of the US, which does not shy away from confrontation.

”Defense… why do we have defense? It used to be called the Department of War. It had a stronger meaning. And as you know, we won World War I, we won World War II, we won everything,” President Donald Trump said before the name change.

At the same time, Trump is not seeking to start an armed conflict. „He is looking for areas of agreement. For example, his policy towards Russia is a policy that aims to draw Russia away from China, so he is not seeking confrontation per se,” Michalski assessed.

In Europe, Donald Trump’s red-carpet welcome for Vladimir Putin in Alaska during negotiations on peace in Ukraine caused quite a stir. The incident was seen as an attempt to „normalize” relations with Putin, who is guilty of starting and waging war against Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands of people have died since 2022.

It turned out that during this meeting, joint US-Russian energy investments were also discussed. These discussions were aimed at encouraging the Kremlin to make real peace efforts. Moscow sought to ease the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Washington. Both countries therefore have an interest in maintaining diplomatic relations.

The Americans are primarily interested in breaking the strong ties between Russia and China. It seems that weakening China may be Trump’s most important goal in maintaining relations with Putin.

In Michalski’s opinion, changing the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War is also part of psychological warfare. He added that the current US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, „makes no secret of the fact that his goal is to build a new army.” An army „that could cope in all conditions.”. ”It means that he has certain conditions in mind,” said the Americanist.

Plutonium for energy, atoms for peace

Another puzzling element of the Trump administration’s current policy is the decision to stop disposing of plutonium stocks and… convert them into fuel for nuclear power plant reactors. According to Reuters, Washington plans to make about 20 tons of this radioactive element available to American energy companies.

The United States has plutonium stocks dating back to the Cold War. In 1994, the US announced that it had 52.5 tons of surplus (61.5 tons of surplus in 2007) of the radioactive element in relation to the country’s defense needs, and six years later signed an agreement with Russia on the mutual disposal of at least 34 tons of plutonium so that it could not be used for military purposes. President Trump referred to the issue of denuclearization during the summit in Alaska: „Russia is ready to do it, and I think China will be ready too. We cannot allow the proliferation of nuclear weapons; we must stop nuclear weapons.”

In the past, plutonium from nuclear weapon cores, whether in the form of metal or oxide, was converted into oxide fuel for reactors (known as MOX) or diluted and disposed of, for example at the Savannah River Site. However, in May this year, President Trump ordered the government to halt a significant part of the disposal program, instead directing the stockpile of the element to be used as nuclear fuel.

”Nuclear energy is one of the most important vectors of energy development for Donald Trump and the current Republican camp,” noted Rafał Michalski. „In all possible documents, the Republican Party talks about increasing nuclear power by up to 200 percent. The most important question is: how realistic is this assumption?” he added.

The US wants peace, but is preparing for war

”Although minerals have significance for military-industrial supply chains increasingly oriented against each other, minerals themselves are not likely to precipitate or trigger interstate conflict. That being said, mineral resources can and have become part of wider political destabilization and territorial conflicts,” assessed the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Donald Trump’s rhetoric on critical raw materials focuses on 17 rare earth elements (REE) that are imported into the US from China. This strong demand makes no sense when one considers their use in wind turbines and electric vehicles. Currently, the US economy is not particularly interested in either renewable energy or electric mobility. Therefore, it makes sense to use REEs in missiles, oil refining, the aviation industry, advanced electronic devices, and radar systems.

The economic hype surrounding critical raw materials in the US points to one thing: the US wants peace, but is preparing for war. From Europe’s point of view, we can only hope that this will not be another conflict on our continent. However, the economic destabilization that every war brings, as well as close defense relations with the US, have enormous potential to influence our reality. Therefore, we must continue to observe the US’s next moves, especially those that are not obvious, and the context of energy and resources, which is more often than it might seem at first glance linked to defense.

Authors: Magdalena Melke, Katarzyna Łukasiewicz