Defence Policy

Gazprom Attacks The Polish Shale Gas, On The Eve Of Deposit Estimations

In a special announcement, prepared after the meeting of the Gazprom’s Board of Directors, the company negatively assessed the chances possessed by Poland and Ukraine, within the scope of commercial fracking of the shale gas. The aforementioned document emerged in the media sphere now - and this is not an accident. On 27th November, the Polish Geological Institute is going to present a new report, demonstrating the estimated size of the Polish shale gas deposits.   

The aforesaid PGI study has been developed on the basis of the data gathered during the search for the gas and the related drilling activities carried out in Poland, within the period between 2010 and 2014. The previous estimates come from 2012. According to the gathered data, the deposits in Poland were contained in a volume of 346 to 768 billion cubic meters of gas.

However, according to the unofficial information obtained by us, the latest report is going to confirm that there is a quantity of gas close to 400 – 600 billion cubic meters, accumulated within the territory of Poland. Hence, most probably, the Gazprom’s continuation of the activities, targeted against the Polish shale gas deposits. Moreover, a preventive information strike may also be expected. On the other hand, the invitations sent by the Polish institute, inviting the experts to participate in the presentation on the issue, have a positive ring to it. “The chaos around the Polish shale gas, led to information chaos. The realistic view is being darker, because of discrepancies and myths (…) The unjustified euphoria, present a couple of years ago, has been now replaced by excessive pessimism and sadness.” - as the Institute states.

As we can see, the struggle for the gas is going on. Despite the narrative which has been disseminated in Poland so far, the physical deposits of gas do exist (referring to the statements, which suggested otherwise), and they may be exploited in the future. Most probably, this is going to happen once the prices of crude oil start to go up, while the financial condition of the energy sector gets better (the shale gas branch faces trouble now, also in the United States of America). Gazprom is probably aware of the above context, and thus, it strikes again. Why Gazprom also mentions Ukraine, besides Poland?

It is possible that this refers to the information that emerged in the media six months ago. Then, the Russian Izvestia outlet stated that George Soros, an American billionaire, is going to allocate USD 150 million, in order to support the Polish and Ukrainian shale gas projects. Soros is already behind the San Leon and BNK Petroleum companies, involved in unconventional gas drilling in Poland.  He is willing to start similar works in the Ukrainian territory as well – as some speculations seem to suggest. In January this year, Soros, talking to Pravda, noted that the analytical procedures are being conducted, regarding Ukraine, but no specific decisions have been made.

Soros stated that he focuses on three investment areas, with the energy industry on top. Soon after, Austrian Der Standard newspaper informed that Soros had decided to invest USD 1 billion, on the Ukrainian market. In February this year, the reports in the media suggested that the US billionaire is in the process of transferring his assets from the US-based companies to Europe. Some speculations have been made that Soros is going to use companies, in which he owns a lot of capital, within his Ukrainian strategy. Here, we are referring to a wide spectrum of businesses, including chemical sector companies (Dow Chemicals), energy sector businesses (PDC Energy, Energen), and financial services provision, realized thanks to the assets within the structure of the Citi Group.