From disinformation to drones - how not to tackle the authoritarian threat
The hybrid war is expanding. And Europe is entering a new phase as Russia is targeting more countries both with its information warfare as well as physical operations including the most recent developments where Russian drones entered Poland (and Romania).
Disinformation is one of the most recognized hybrid tools, throughout Europe there is a wide range of different narratives in motion that serve the same purpose: to undermine our democratic and free societies from within. The target of drones and disinformation is thus largely the same.
In order to be able to plant and fuel successful disinformation, knowledge about the targeted society and its inherent culture is necessary. When well-prepared the disinformation is just subtle enough to nudge the opinion in the right direction with a few simple grips. For countries such as Ukraine and Poland there are, as there is among all European countries in general, several historical facts, experiences and events that to varying degrees at occasions test and limit the bilateral relationship. However, this has since the outbreak of Russia’s invasion war in Ukraine 2022 been handled quite cautiously, and needs to continue to do so, if the larger task is not to be abandoned and freedom put at risk.
For whether it is drones entering Poland or other European countries or disinformation campaigns spreading, we need to resist the cognitive bait offered to us succumbing to the mechanisms of fear and turning against other actors than the one responsible.
But this is easier said than done. When Russian drones came flying into Poland last week, some Poles reacted towards Ukraine with frustration and suspicions that the drones were being „let in”. Loosing sight of the main actor and the sole initiator of the war, which is Russia, one risks following the the trap Russia places, namely making friendly neighbours quarrel with each other instead of focusing on bolstering the collective strength. Our strongest card towards the common enemy comes from the unity there is around the steadfast support for Ukraine, as well as any country being attacked by Russia.
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In countries as Sweden, disinformation is commonly fuelled in heated topics such as migration and criminality. Most recently, the Hungarian president made accusations and claims about Swedish internal security with exaggerated numbers about youth criminality, arguing that Sweden was „collapsing” due to barbarism. These type of narratives fit perfectly with sentiments among those who are already critical to the political class or find it tempting with populist solutions to advanced problems.
Some analysts argue that Orban is preparing for elections and the accusations towards Sweden stem from this internal discourse, however, the depiction of free societies as barbaric is also a recurring specialty of traditional disinformation actors.
Navigating in the stormy seas of a quickly shifting world, Europe needs to keep its nose above the water and needs to stay focused on our most important and shared tasks, namely to keep hostile aggressors as Russia as far away and out of Europe, making sure that the next generations of Europeans are allowed the same freedoms we once were given. In order to do so we need to ask ourselves over and again, when presented with that which easily fuels resentment, can we be experiencing cognitive clickbait?
