How to enhance the Ukrainian Air Force?

The tactical (fighter) aviation of the Ukrainian Air Force is known to be a success or almost a miracle story since the start of full scale Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022. After having largely avoided the first strike of Russian forces in February 2022 Ukrainian AF has continued to operate, and despite challenges and many painful lossess Ukrainian MiG-29s and Sukhois still operate over Ukrainian skies, often carrying Western-made weapons such as American JDAM-ER and Small Diameter Bomb or French AASM Hammer.

On the top of that, since 2024, Ukraine has been receiving Western-produced aircraft, including F-16AM/BM donated by Denmark, Norway and Netherlands (approx. 50 were delivered), and France delivered several of its Mirage 2000-5s as well. Both provided extremely useful in air defence operations as well as in ground attack missions.

While those are not the newest variants of fighter aircraft the NATO has, and thus are not equal opponents for most modern Russian aircraft such as Su-35, they nevertheless do constitute a quantitative leap over old Su-27s and MiG-29s Ukraine has been using, for various reasons including weapons integration and situational awareness etc.

The problem is, that after having donated approximately 60 aircraft, Ukraine and its partners are at crossroads, as there are not many more aircraft that can be donated by the countries participating in the process. In particular, Netherlands and Norway have already provided all of their F-16s either to Ukraine or Romania (the latter country hosting a multinational training center, also training Ukrainian pilots), while the remaining 24 Danish aircraft will be provided to Argentina under an agreement signed during Biden Administration. Belgium has declared it will provide its F-16s to Ukraine as well, but this is contingent on F-16 deliveries, so Ukraine may expect approx. 30 aircraft in 2026-2028 timeframe at best.

On the other hand, France after having provided several Mirage 2000-5s still needs this type of aircraft to fulfill its national defence requirements has been seeking other countries operating Mirage 2000-5 or 2000-9, such as Qatar, UAE or Greece, to re-sell them to France so that Paris can provide its jets to Ukraine. As of now, there are no known positive results of this initiative.

As things stand, the Ukrainian Air Force has been provided about 60 serviceable Western-made jets, several of which have already been lost. This is a significant reinforcement for Kyiv, yet it is far from sufficient, as Ukraine estimates that no less than 128 and ideally even 200 modern multi-role aircraft would be suitable to defend its airspace.

So, the question is, how to organise further deliveries of modern combat aircraft to Ukraine? Apparently this requires engagement of Ukraine’s partners, including countries that have not donated their aircraft to Kyiv yet. One known option is Sweden, which has already set aside spare parts for 14 Gripen C/D aircraft that could be provided to Ukraine (other existing Gripens either donate parts to newly built Gripen E or continue to serve in Swedish Air Force).

There are also at least two other alternatives, which may seem dubious at first, but may turn out to be necessary. One is cooperation with Argentina, and the United States. It is not impossible that the pro-Ukrainian Javier Milei administration of Argentina would agree to hand over its F-16AM/BM if it was provided an equal replacement – that is, used F-16C/Ds, in all likehood from the US Air Force surplus. We need to remember that the Danish aircraft were in a relatively good condition, so Argentina would have to receive additional funds for overhauls and upgrades of US-provided aircraft, assuming that Buenos Aires will not pay any significant additional cost for the transaction. So, that would have to be financially supported likely by European countries.

Another possible option would be to provide additional aircraft for French Air Force for air policing duties, so that Paris could give its Mirage 2000-5s freely and wait for new Rafale that are due to be delivered without significant capability gaps. One European option comes to mind, and that is Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 1. Italy is planning a disposal of this aircraft (and reportedly has offered a lease of a squadron-worth number to Poland in 2022), and UK is already withdrawing its oldest Typhoons from active service, though the British Tranche 1 Eurofighters might be delivered to Turkyie as a part of a broader package. One of French Mirage 2000-5 pilots even took recently part in an exchange program with the Royal Air Force, where he flew Eurofighter Typhoon, including Air Policing missions.

While France might not be willing to introduce another type of aircraft for a short time, there is a precedence, as Italy was using a number American-made for a F-16s after decommissioning of F-104 Starfighter and conclusion of the leasing of Air Defence variant of European Tornado. If France wanted to support Ukraine with its fighters, and countries using Mirage 2000-5 today are not willing to provide the replacement for the French Air Force, Paris could try a scheme with Eurofighter Typhoon. This could likely be more expensive and require additional funding, but this way Ukraine could have a reliable supply of Mirage 2000-5, providing not only qualitative, but also quantitative benefits. And in long term, EU countries could finance upgrades of stored French Mirage 2000C to Mirage 2000-5 for Ukraine.

One way or another, Ukrainian Air Force needs additional Western-made fighter aircraft. And it may be difficult to fulfill those requirements without additional funding and inclusion of additional countries into schemes to provide Ukraine with aircraft. Long term, Kyiv would also need newly built aircraft so that Ukrainian Air Force capabilities may be sustained for the decades to come.