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Armed Forces

Warshavianka Dance. Russian Conventional Submarine Maneuvers [REPORT]

Submarine Warshavianka class.
Submarine Warshavianka class.
Photo. Mil.ru

While the movement of Russian surface warships can be tracked with some certainty regarding the accuracy of the identification of vessels and their intentions, with submarines the matter is more complicated.

Russian nuclear submarines are stationed in the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet. Their movement is practically only between these fleets and mainly from shipyards to bases. Occasionally, nuclear submarines enter the Baltic Sea to take part in the traditional parade to celebrate the next Russian Navy Day. Very rarely do they call at ports of friendly countries. In June 2024, the nuclear submarine K-561 Kazan (830) of project 08851 called on a visit of friendship to Cuba, more precisely to Havana. The rest of the nuclear fleet’s activity takes place underwater and remains a mystery to outside observers. Both the large strategic „boomers” armed with ballistic missiles (SSBN) and the smaller nuclear submarines (SSN) are designed to carry out long missions underwater without going to the surface.

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In contrast, Russian conventional submarines operate in a more difficult situation. In order to conceal themselves underwater for long periods of time, they have to use air drawn through their snorkels. They are not equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) and, consequently, their cruises are considerably shorter than those of nuclear-powered vessels.

Status at the end of 2024

They are part of all four of Russia’s Navy fleets. By the end of 2024, the Russians had a relatively small conventional submarine fleet suitable for current operations.

The Black Sea Fleet has a total of six new Project 06363 submarines and an old Project 877W B-871 Alrosa submarine (554), which appears to have already completed a lengthy overhaul in Sevastopol. In the Black Sea, it has three Project 06363 ships cut off from the world, viz:

  • B-262 Staryj Oskol (560);
  • B-268 Velikiy Novgorod (567);
  • B-271 Kolpino (570).

The fourth i.e. B-237 Rostov-Na-Donu (556) was severely damaged twice by the Ukrainians in 2023 and 2024. Its return to service is very doubtful, despite Russian assurances that it will be refurbished in the future. Another, the B-265 Krasnodar (562), has been under repair in Kronstadt, or the Baltic, since 2023. The last one, the B-261 Novorossiysk (555), was still in the Mediterranean Sea at the end of 2024, but without solid base support. Recent events and developments in Syria have, at least for the time being, eliminated the use by Russian ships of a base in the Syrian port of Tartus.

The Baltic Fleet now formally owns only one submarine, B-806 Dmitrov (487), a Project 877 still in service in 1986, the same year that the flag was raised on Polish ORP Orzeł (291).

Polish ORP Orzeł (291) submarine in a floating dock
Polish ORP Orzeł (291) submarine in a floating dock
Photo. Jarosław Ciślak/Defence24.pl

The Pacific Fleet already has five new Project 06363 subs in service, but only four are in the Pacific. They are:

  • B-274 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy (456);
  • B-603 Volkhov (473);
  • B-602 Magadan (458);
  • B-588 Ufa (490).

The fifth, the B-608 Mažaisk (451), was still in the Baltic at the end of last year, where it was built. The fleet still has six of the old Project 877 submarines, which entered service in 1987-1994. They are:

  • B-445 Svyatoy Nikolai Chudotvoretz (531);
  • B-394 Nurlat (522);
  • B-464 Ust-Kamchatsk (547);
  • B-494 Ust-Bolshieck (549);
  • B-187 Komsomolsk-na-Amurie (529);
  • B-345 Mogocha (507).

It is difficult to guess which ones are still operational and ready for operations, and which ones have already been put away. In this case, the Russian lack of tradition of organizing official ceremonies for the withdrawal from service bows once again. Although it is worth noting a break from the lack of this tradition, and it was in the Pacific Fleet. On September 1, 2023, a ceremony was held to mark the termination of service by another Project 877 ship, during which the B-190 Krasnokamensk (521) was bid farewell. So far it is not known whether this was a one-time event or will be repeated in the future on the remaining six old 877s.

The Northern Fleet has a similar situation with its old Project 877 submarines. It has five of them still in service from 1988 to 1991. They are:

  • B-808 Yaroslavl (425);
  • B-800 Kaluga (468);
  • B-459 Vladikavkaz (431);
  • B-471 Magnitogorsk (409);
  • B-177 Lipetsk (429).

Some time ago, at least three of them were under prolonged overhaul and, as with their Pacific „twins”, it is very difficult to assess their technical condition and combat readiness. In addition to them, the fleet has two new Project 677 vessels. These are the prototype B-585 Sankt-Pietierburg (477), embarked in 2010, and the first serial B-586 Kronstadt, on which the flag was raised on January 31, 2024. The prototype is certainly not suitable for fulfilling combat missions. The epic of its construction, testing, trials and research began on December 26, 1997 when the keel was ceremoniously laid under it. Exactly whether it is still going on or whether the ship has sometimes already been decommissioned is unknown. Both Project 677 ships were in the Baltic at the end of 2024.

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What’s under construction

The only Russian shipyard currently building conventional submarines is the Admiralty Verfi shipyard in St. Petersburg. It builds in series units of projects 06363 Paltus and 677 Lada. Currently under construction in St. Petersburg are:

  • B-610 Yakutsk project 06363 for the Pacific Fleet, launched on October 11, 2024;
  • B-587 Velikie Luki (454) of Project 677 for the Baltic Fleet, launched as early as December 23, 2022, and tested all the time by the shipyard and the fleet;
  • Vologda project 677 for the Northern Fleet, the keel for which was laid on June 12, 2022;
  • Yaroslavl project 677 for the Northern Fleet, whose keel was laid on June 12, 2022.
The Yakutsk submarine, entirely moved to a floating dock
The Yakutsk submarine, entirely moved to a floating dock
Photo. Russian Defence Ministry/mil.ru

The Velikiye Luki ship is planned for 2025, and the Yakutsk ship is planned for late 2025/2026. The Vologda ship is scheduled for launch in 2025, and the Yaroslavl ship in 2026.

The shipyard has theoretically ordered four more ships of project 06363 Paltus and one ship of project 677 Lada. However, not even the keel has been laid for any of them. They are planned for the Northern and Baltic Fleets, but whether this will happen time will tell. And that will be in a few nice years.

Combinations

Russian submarines operate at the seas without tactical numbers or names displayed on their kiosks. They are put on only at naval bases and during naval parades. Therefore, even in the available photos it is almost impossible to identify them if not indicated by other factors. Of course, naval forces have methods of identifying them, e.g. by radio communications if they use them or by radar wave emissions when they have radars on.

On December 31, 2024, a submarine of project 06363 emerged from the Baltic Sea through the Danish Straits. It can be assumed with a high degree of probability that it was the B-608 Mažaysk (451). Accompanying it was the naval tug Sergei Balk of project 23470. All indications are that this was to be the beginning of the transfer of the submarine to the home Pacific Fleet. It was to be because both vessels stopped rather quickly. Initially, this could be explained by very bad weather conditions in the North Sea. Shortly thereafter, the naval base in Baltiysk was left by the salvage ship Yevgeny Churov of project 712 and the salvage tug SB-123, which headed for the straits. A few days later because on January 9 the Mažaiysk returned to the Baltic through the straits. On the same day and the day before, all three auxiliary vessels did the same.

For now, the reason for this unexpected return remains a mystery. Was it due to technical reasons or to a change of decision regarding the date of its transfer to the Pacific. It could have been expected that Mažaisk would go there through the Mediterranean. Its predecessor in this way, the submarine Ufa, played in the Mediterranean for quite a long time. It entered it through the Strait of Gibraltar on 22 December 2023 and left it through the Suez Canal only on 1 October 2024 and continued its way to Vladivostok. Due to the above-mentioned problems of the Russian ship grouping off the Syrian coast, such a plan may have been changed at the last minute. The change may concern both the rescheduling of the transfer to a later date and the change of route to the so-called Northern Route through Arctic waters. This route is mainly for nuclear submarines, passing it usually in an underwater position. But in 2022, on its way to Vladivostok, it was traversed by a conventional submarine B-602 Magadan (458) that was built earlier.

Meanwhile, on the night of 2 to 3 January 2025, the submarine B-261 Novorossiysk (555) of project 06363 emerged from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic through the Strait of Gibraltar and set course for the Baltic. To meet it from the Baltic to the North Sea, the corvette Bojkij (532) of project 20380 came out on 7 January. Both vessels crossed the Danish Straits on 14 January. This left the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean without a submarine for the first time in many years.

Thus, in the Baltic today Russia has the following submarines:

  • B-261 Novorossiysk (555) of project 06363 from the Black Sea Fleet;
  • B-265 Krasnodar (562) of project 06363 from the Black Sea Fleet;
  • B-608 Mažaysk (451) of project 06363 from the Pacific Fleet;
  • B-585 Sankt-Petersburg (477) of project 677 from the Northern Fleet;
  • B-586 Kronstadt of project 677 from the Northern Fleet;
  • B-806 Dmitrov (487) of project 877 from the parent Baltic Fleet;
  • the yet-to-be-tested B-587 Velikie Luki (454) of design 677 intended for the Baltic Fleet.

To sum up, today in the Baltic the Russians have seven conventional ships of projects 877, 06363 and 677. Admittedly, some of them are in testing, overhaul or limited operational capability. But there are so many of them, and all indications are that the Russians will not let go of the Baltic as an area for anticipated submarine operations.

The submarine Velikiye Luki, that is undergoing testing, is also an important argument for this. It was originally intended for the Northern Fleet. But due to changes in the military-political situation in Europe, including the Baltic, this designation was changed. Of these seven ships mentioned above, only one is formally in the Russian Baltic Fleet, and it is the oldest. And that is why the newest unit of project 677 will become part of this fleet in a few weeks or so.

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It is also worth mentioning the change in the place of permanent basing submarines in the Baltic, which is still under consideration by the Russians. Currently, the headquarters of the 3rd Independent Submarine Squadron is Kronstadt. However, the bulk of the Baltic Fleet’s surface forces are stationed in Baltiysk. It is possible that in the coming years it will be the Baltiysk that will be adapted to permanently station submarines. In the event of a crisis, this will give Russian submarines the chance to more easily take up positions for possible operations in the Baltic. At the same time, some of the surface ships may move from Baltiysk to Kronstadt. There they will be more difficult to neutralise and cut off from the coastal base. The Russians in recent years have even already been practising a manoeuver in the form of the passage of their smaller combat ships to Lake Ladoga. Even from this lake, they will be able to launch missile attacks against targets in Finland, Sweden or the Baltic States.

The current complicated situation in the Baltic and the launch of NATO’s Operation Baltic Guard in connection with it further intensifies the interest in Russian naval warfare in the Baltic Sea.

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