Russia weakened but still dangerous after the Ukraine war

Russia has suffered major structural losses — demographic decline, reduced energy leverage over Europe and growing dependence on China — while NATO enlargement and a hardened Ukraine have dramatically worsened Moscow’s geopolitical position. Finland and Sweden joining NATO and the emergence of a heavily militarised Ukraine have expanded Western strategic depth and limited Russia’s military options, even as Moscow maintains influence in parts of the post-Soviet space.

At the same time, Russia has adapted effectively to wartime conditions. Its forces have reorganised around drones, electronic warfare and attritional combat, sanctions have failed to collapse its war economy, and the Kremlin has consolidated domestic control. The conflict has shown that a mobilised authoritarian state can sustain prolonged confrontation and exploit political divisions and fatigue within Western societies.

For the United States, the challenge is not waiting for Russian decline but managing a long-term confrontation. Washington must convert Russia’s current strategic setbacks into lasting realities while countering coercive activities in the Baltics, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, where Moscow will likely attempt to rebuild influence. Prolonged war favours actors able to absorb losses and suppress dissent, meaning democratic alliances must adapt politically, militarily and economically to remain competitive.

This also means the United States seeks to maintain its position as a global superpower capable of leadership at multiple levels, including emerging international initiatives such as the Board of Peace. Washington’s role within NATO must continue to be clearly reinforced, as allies still rely heavily on American guarantees and strategic direction. At the same time, the long-term US approach towards Moscow remains uncertain, which is particularly significant given that China is using its relationship with Russia to strengthen its own position. Even after the war in Ukraine ends, the international environment is unlikely to become more stable, and further regional conflicts are likely to emerge.