Franco-German rift puts Future Combat Air System at risk
The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is a flagship project jointly developed by France, Germany, and Spain, with Dassault, Airbus, and Indra as the lead industry partners.
Yet the project’s foundation is increasingly shaky, strained by recurring disputes between Paris and Berlin over design, suppliers, division of labor, and program leadership. For example, France insists that the jet has to be carrier-capable, which is central to its nuclear deterrence strategy, while Germany takes a different view. Paris is also pushing for full leadership, despite the current framework giving all partners — at least technically — an equal say.
Recent discussions about downsizing the €100 billion project saw Berlin and Paris weigh the possibility of shelving parts of the fighter jet plan and instead prioritizing joint development of a command-and-control system, the so-called combat cloud. The system would use cloud-based data networks to link pilots, aircraft, sensors, radars, drones, and both land- and sea-based command centers. If the plan for joint production of fighter jets is scrambled or postponed, pivoting to the cloud environment could become an avenue for continued Franco-German cooperation. Sources linked to the Financial Times indicate that focusing solely on the cloud network could accelerate its delivery from 2040 to 2030, but these estimates remain largely speculative as no final decision has been reached yet.
During Tuesday’s meeting in Berlin, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron placed the future of FCAS high on the agenda. Macron urged the companies involved in the project to move forward and settle the differences causing delays. Merz further emphasized that the two governments want a final decision by the end of this year, noting that a „significant amount of money” is at stake. This signaling shows that French and German leaders want a swift resolution to the FCAS disputes, though whether their pressure will translate into real progress remains to be seen.
If FCAS falls – implications
Dassault CEO Éric Trappier stated that his company is willing and capable of developing the sixth generation aircraft alone, should the original program collapse. In this scenario, the fate of Spain would likely be reduced to a bystander, since Dassault could proceed without needing to accommodate Spanish contributions. Meanwhile Germany could potentially join the GCAP program, though, due to the advanced state of the project, it would likely not enter on equal footing with the other participating countries – UK, Japan, and Italy.
If Europe squanders the opportunity to develop FCAS, it risks forfeiting its best chance to field own sixth-generation capabilities and will likely remain dependent on U.S. platforms, like F-35 and the Next-Generation Air Dominance ecosystem. While shifting focus to the combat-cloud architecture is not inherently negative – Europe urgently needs such capabilities as well – it would nonetheless reinforce perceptions of Europe’s inability to deliver high-end kinetic systems on schedule. Ultimately, the collapse of FACS would be a symptom of Europe’s deeper, structural problem: the inability to generate defense industrial output at scale, which hinges on the process of developing its own defense capabilities.
Author: Karolina Kisiel
