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NATO resilience must be measured by capabilities, not plans
A law, strategy or continuity plan does not prove that a state can maintain essential functions during a real disruption. NATO’s resilience requirements need to be translated into measurable capabilities, with the necessary resources, responsible authorities and practical tests clearly identified.
The proposed model starts with a NATO requirement and links it to a national objective, a capability, specific tasks, a responsible authority and the resources needed. Each capability is then assigned indicators and a threshold. Exercises and tests show whether the threshold is met, while the assessment identifies gaps and the corrective action required.
The model assesses each of NATO’s seven resilience requirements across five dimensions. The regulatory dimension covers laws, strategies and plans. The organisational dimension examines responsibilities and procedures for cooperation. The resource dimension considers whether the necessary infrastructure, personnel and reserves are available. The operational dimension measures whether a function can be maintained during disruption. The verification dimension establishes whether the capability has been tested.
Civil communications provide a practical example. NATO calls for reliable, resilient and secure communications to remain available during a crisis or conflict. The assessment could measure service availability, the time needed to restore a service after failure, the time required to switch to a backup system, network redundancy and the proportion of the population reached by an effective alert. Exercises could test network failures and overload, backup systems and public warning systems.
The model distinguishes between declared, potential and verified resilience. Declared resilience means that regulations, plans and procedures are in place. Potential resilience also requires the structures and resources needed to carry them out. Verified resilience means that the capability has been confirmed in an exercise, stress test, operational audit or real crisis.
Combining the seven NATO requirements with the five assessment dimensions creates a matrix of 35 analytical fields. The model remains conceptual. Its next stage requires specific indicators, threshold values, data sources and rules for combining results, followed by empirical testing.
