East Front News #17: Polish F-16 Upgrade Approved, Warsaw Enhances Infrastructure Protection, Polish MFA on Republic of Korea Support to Ukraine

Polish F-16 upgrade approved

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency approved a potential sale of a large upgrade package for Polish F-16 fighter aircraft. The upgrades in question may be worth up to USD 7.3 billion, though the actual value will be lower depending on the negotiation outcome. Poland has been using 48 F-16C/D Block 52+ aircraft, and the upgrade was expected for some time now. The scope of upgrade will be mostly focused on situational awareness, survivability as well as weapons system integration (including SDB-I and SDB-II) and sustainment. Once the negotiations, which would take place several months, are finished, Poland would likely upgrade its F-16 to the most modern Viper configuration and establish certain industrial capacity to maintain the aircraft and their equipment.

DSCA notes that Poland usually requests offsets and „any offset agreement will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and the contractor”, with the prime contractor being Lockheed Martin, the aircraft manufacturer. It is likely that the final G2G agreement will have a smaller value than the posted USD 7.3 billion, as according to DSCA „description and dollar value are for the highest estimated quantity and dollar value based on initial requirements. Actual dollar value will be lower depending on final requirements, budget authority, and signed sales agreement(s), if and when concluded”. DSCA also added that „this proposed sale will support the foreign policy goals and national security of the United States by improving the security of a NATO Ally that is a force for political and economic stability in Europe”.

Poland Calls Republic of Korea to Increase the Support for Ukraine

„I hope that South Korea will draw conclusions from this and will want to increase its aid to Ukraine,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski in response to a question from a Defence24 journalist about Poland’s position on the deployment of North Korean soldiers in Russia to participate in the aggression against Ukraine.

During a joint press conference with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, Sikorski suggested that Seoul should aim to increase its support for Kyiv. „North Korean soldiers, in large numbers, have not yet reached the (Ukrainian - ed.) front. According to our information, they are still in the Far East. I hope South Korea will draw conclusions from this and will want to increase its aid to Ukraine,” Sikorski added on Wednesday, 23 October in response to the Defence24 journalist.

Will Poland Create a Counter-UAS missile?

At the first International Armament Congress in Krakow, the Military Institute of Armament Technology (WITU) presented the concept of a low-cost guided missile designed to effectively counter enemy drones, particularly strike unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) of the Shahed class. The information covering the concept of the Polish counter-UAS missile was revealed during the first International Armament Congress, organized between 21st and 25th October in Krakow, by the Military Institute of Armament Technology (WITU) in cooperation with the Armament Technology Institute of WAT (Military University of Technology). This event is held under the honorary patronage of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, as well as the city of Krakow, with Defence24.pl serving as the media patron.

This is a missile concept with a price comparable to strike UAVs of the Shahed class. To meet this requirement, WITU proposed a missile with a diameter of 105 mm, a length of 1800 mm, a wingspan of 328 mm, and a launch weight of just 20 kg (with a warhead weighing 4.2 kg). The designers emphasize that the concept is specifically tailored for countering drones. The missile is designed to be low-cost, comparable to the strike systems it targets, and the system itself is intended to be effective against saturation attacks. For now, WITU is seeking an industrial partner to help finalize the project and bring it into mass production, primarily for the Polish Armed Forces.

The Landmark British-German Agreement

On 23 October 2024, the UK and the Federal Republic of Germany signed a historic defence agreement. The declaration highlights the goal of „bringing the two nations closer together than ever before.” Known as the Trinity House Agreement, it was signed by British Defence Secretary John Healey and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. The agreement enables systematic, long-term cooperation across all defence domains: air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace. Key elements of the enhanced UK-German partnership include the development of a new long-range strike system expected to surpass Storm Shadow missiles in range and effectiveness, the establishment of a Rheinmetall factory in the UK, further advancements in Boxer vehicle technology, and strengthened defences on NATO’s eastern flank. Additionally, the agreement grants German aviation the ability to operate over Scottish territory and the North Atlantic. Since the Labour Party’s victory in the July general election, the UK has focused on bolstering its bilateral relationship with Germany. The Trinity House Agreement reflects the UK’s strategic view on Central and Eastern Europe. However, this does not imply that London will abandon cooperation with Poland, Ukraine, or the Baltic states; rather, Berlin’s capacity and influence surpass those of other regional partners. The agreement includes a commitment to continued support for Ukraine, though a notable omission is the participation of NATO’s eastern flank countries in twin cooperation formats. While the agreement marks a significant milestone, Germany has not fully met the UK’s expectations, as the UK has not committed to joining the German-led Sky Shield air defence initiative. Another upcoming opportunity to strengthen UK-German ties is the planned visit of the British aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales to Hamburg later this year.

Poland to resume Cluster Munitions Production?

The head of the National Security Bureau, Jacek Siewiera, suggested that in the face of the ongoing war in the East, the Polish state should consider resuming the production of cluster munitions. Will Cluster Munitions Become a Part of the Polish Arsenal? Such a need was suggested by Jacek Siewiera, Head of the National Security Bureau, in the program „Rzecz w tym” and later in a post on social media.

„Against an adversary who does not recognize the moral norms of the Western world, one of the criteria for the state’s defence preparations should be the effectiveness of neutralizing the personnel. For this reason, we need both cluster munitions, anti-personnel mines, and white phosphorus munitions,” he said in an interview with „Rzeczpospolita”.

Cluster munitions are banned in more than 100 countries under a convention adopted on May 30, 2008, in Dublin. Poland is not a signatory to this agreement. Poland has some inventory of cluster munitions, but only for a small number of assets, and production was halted several years ago. In Ukraine, cluster munitions supplied by the United States on a larger scale since mid-last year have proven very effective, as they allow for striking surface targets, both soldiers and equipment. It is worth noting that the Russian army has used them since the start of the war, and Ukraine also used its (and Turkish) stocks, albeit on a smaller scale for obvious reasons. The issue of cluster munitions has been repeatedly addressed on Defence24.pl.

Smuggling Network Dismantled

In a recent operation by nearly 120 officers from the Podlaskie Branch of the Polish Border Guard, in collaboration with Europol (the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation), 11 individuals involved in smuggling illegal migrants from Russia and Belarus to Western European countries were arrested. The detainees include citizens of Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. Most of those detained were responsible for recruiting couriers to transport illegal migrants from the Polish-Belarusian border to the German border. During the operation, officers searched 11 properties and several vehicles, seizing phones, computers, documents, and 80,000 PLN in cash. According to the Polish Border Guard Headquarters, one Russian citizen posed as a car rental service provider to recruit drivers and supply vehicles. Since the beginning of the year, over 300 individuals involved in organizing illegal migrant smuggling have been detained. The Russian Federation actively leverages illegal migration as a tool to destabilize Europe. Given its geographical position and role in supporting Ukraine, Poland is particularly susceptible to these activities. Despite recent enforcement actions by Warsaw, incidents of human smuggling across the Polish-Belarusian border are likely to persist. Western nations, as destinations for these illegal migration routes, must recognize that Poland’s eastern border is not merely a Polish issue but a critical security frontier for Europe.

Key Changes to Protect Polish Infrastructure Against Cyberattacks

Poland is implementing substantial cybersecurity reforms through a proposed amendment to the National Cybersecurity System (KSC) law. This initiative targets enhanced security measures across essential infrastructure sectors, especially banking, telecommunications, and energy, in response to the rising threat of cyberattacks. The new amendment outlines a centralized oversight structure, allowing a single lead authority to supervise these critical entities. This change aims to streamline coordination, reduce administrative burdens, and accelerate the response to cybersecurity incidents. A notable addition is the introduction of ad hoc inspection procedures, enabling immediate action if there is evidence of potential violations or imminent threats. These inspections can be triggered by monitoring officials, providing a more flexible and responsive oversight mechanism. Additionally, the amendment revises the penalties for violations, calibrating fines based on factors such as the severity, duration, and the financial standing of the entity involved. This approach aims to encourage compliance without disproportionately impacting smaller organizations. Further, the amendment formalizes the role of monitoring officials who will carry out system checks for a specified period, typically capped at one month, with prior notification to the entity involved. Following extensive public consultations, in which 215 stakeholders provided input, the Ministry of Digitization integrated about 70% of the proposed suggestions, reflecting a commitment to transparency and a collaborative approach to regulatory improvements. The bill is now moving through ministerial committees, with plans for parliamentary review later this year.

Poland Showcases 35 mm Gun-Based Air Defence System

During the first International Armament Congress, PIT-RADWAR presented an artillery system based on a 35 mm cannon with programmable ammunition and proposed its integration into the air defence system being developed for the Polish Armed Forces. This will involve, among other things, the introduction of anti-aircraft artillery systems mounted on AS-35 wheeled chassis. The concept of implementing the 35 mm cannon with programmable (ABM) ammunition into the Polish air defence system was introduced by PIT-RADWAR, a company under the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ), during the first International Armament Congress.

The focus in Krakow was on the possibility of using programmable ABM (Air Burst Munitions) ammunition in the latter, where the shell’s detonation time is inductively programmed after precisely measuring its velocity. This solution is co-financed by the National Centre for Research and Development (NCBiR), and the work, carried out by PIT-RADWAR, the Military University of Technology, and the Mesko company, is expected to be completed by 20th June, 2025.

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East Front News is a weekly newsletter and article on Defence24.com summarizing the past week’s most important events concerning security and the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region. It includes original opinions and comments, along with key news items significant from a Polish perspective.

Aleksander Olech, PhD & Jakub Palowski, Deputy Ed. in Chief