Is terrorism in retreat?

The report stresses that terrorism remains one of the world’s most significant security threats, as demonstrated, among other things, by the 2,900 attacks that took place last year and the associated deaths of 5,500 people. These, however, are markedly lower figures than in 2024. 

For example, the number of terrorist incidents worldwide fell by 22%, while the number of those killed declined by 28%. The long-term trend looks even more positive – for instance, the number of fatalities dropped from 10,800 in 2015 to the aforementioned level of 5,500. Terrorist threats also diminished significantly in individual states last year: a decline was recorded in 81 cases, while an increase was seen in 19.  

The weakness of the Terrorist Hydra?

Does this mean, then, that terrorism is in retreat? Although it is indeed a lesser threat in some respects, the above claim is not justified overall. The report shows that the number of countries that experienced at least one terrorist incident last year rose to 66, the highest figure since 2018.  

Moreover, a very substantial decline in the terrorist threat – for example, a 99% drop in the number of victims of attacks in Iraq or a 95% drop in Afghanistan, does not necessarily indicate a lasting trend, given the internal and international conditions prevailing there. This demonstrates the continuing evolution of terrorism, both in practical terms (strategy and tactics) and in its geographical dimension, involving the „shift” of terrorist activity between individual states or regions. 

Over the past two decades, the epicentre of global terrorism has shifted from the Middle East and North Africa to the Sahel region. Although this area still leads in terms of terrorist threat, an improvement can also be observed there. The number of fatalities fell in ten states in the region, while rising in four.  

Will the main enclave of terrorism in the future therefore remain the Sahel, or, given the international situation, could it once again become the Middle East or Asia? Or, in the age of artificial intelligence and quantum computers, will cyberspace become the main domain of terrorist activity?  

Another worrying sign that terrorism is not necessarily in retreat is the sharp, 280% rise in the number of terrorism victims in states described by the report’s authors as part of the „West”. This escalation concerns above all the United States and Australia. 

Attention is also drawn to the very significant shortening of the radicalisation process among future potential terrorists. In 2005, this period lasted on average 18 months; in 2016, 13 months. Today, however, radicalisation, aided in particular by social media and messaging platforms, often takes place within just a few weeks. 

Escalatory potential of the threats

A renewed escalation of the terrorist threat in the near future may result not only from terrorists such as ISIS or al-Qaeda and groups linked to them, or from the intensification of conflicts and flashpoints ranging from the Middle East to the Afghan-Pakistani border. Another very serious threat also comes from states that support or use terrorism, including through the use of various formations. 

Further escalation of tension in the Strait of Hormuz would further activate Iranian retaliatory actions, carried out inter alia through Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis or other groups. This would affect not only the Middle East, but also the United States, Europe and their allies, as warned on several occasions by the FBI Director, among others. The potential and capabilities of these organisations in different parts of the world are considerable, yet only partly understood.  

Hezbollah, for example, maintains a very extensive network in Europe of logistical, financial and training links. In Germany alone, it brings together more than 1,000 activists, although their true number may be several times higher. They are often involved in collecting or transferring information, goods and financial resources obtained both from sympathisers and from extortion, arms trafficking, narcotics or human trafficking. Moreover, they conduct operational activities in both Western and Central-Eastern Europe.   

Examples include the 2012 suicide attack at Burgas airport, the 2014 arrest in the Czech Republic of a person who, on behalf of Hezbollah, was overseeing weapons smuggling, and the 2015 arrest in Cyprus and London of two members of the organisation who had amassed a combined total of more than 11 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, an important component in many explosives.

Other Iran-linked or anti-Western organisations also possess dangerous capabilities, which, when combined with Russian hybrid actions and agents of influence, reveals the scale of the problem. This may therefore mean that terrorism is not in retreat and that last year’s decline in the threat will prove to be only a short-lived transitional trend. 

About the author: Sebastian Wojciechowski – Head of the Department of Strategic Studies and International Security, Faculty of Political Science and Journalism, Adam Mickiewicz University. Chief analyst at the Western Institute in Poznań. OSCE and NATO DEEP eAcademy expert on domestic and international security. Editor-in-chief of Przegląd Strategiczny (Strategic Review). He has recently published „The Evolution and Escalation of the Hybrid Terrorist Threat in the European Union” and „From Disinformation to Espionage – Russia’s Hybrid Actions Against Poland”.