Will the US leave NATO? [COMMENTARY]

Republican Congressman Thomas Massie has introduced a bill proposing that the United States withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “U.S. membership in NATO is inconsistent with our national security interests,” wrote the lawmaker, who titled his document the “NATO Act” and the “Not A Trusted Organization Act.” The latter title clearly indicates the nature of the proposal.

An overlooked change

Naturally, this bill is essentially a broad indictment of the North Atlantic Alliance. According to Massie, the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union rendered NATO obsolete. In Section 6 of the bill, it states that “The dissolution of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union fundamentally altered the security situation in Europe and rendered the collective defense mission upon which NATO was founded obsolete.”

Referring back to the early 1990s while ignoring the changes that have occurred—and continue to occur—within the Alliance over the decades is one of several mistakes made by the congressman. NATO has evolved and continues to adapt to shifts in the global security architecture (examples include the final conclusions of the summits in Vilnius and Washington, where China was identified as a systemic challenge to the Alliance). Did NATO lose its purpose when, in 2001, Article 5 was invoked for the first and only time in history, obligating member states to assist the United States in its fight against terrorism? The author seems to have conveniently forgotten that.

Bad NATO, Good Russia

The published bill can be seen as a comprehensive list of grievances against the European members of the North Atlantic Alliance. It includes both legitimate references to the failure of some countries to meet the 2014 Newport Summit commitment to allocate a minimum of 2 percent of GDP to defense, as well as accusations—echoing Russian propaganda—of NATO’s alleged continuous expansion, supposedly in violation of official NATO–Russia agreements.

In this context, the congressman cites, among other things, assurances allegedly made by Secretary of State James Baker (1989–1992) to Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastward (no formal promises were made—ed.). Unfortunately, the author neglects the much longer list of Russian actions that have trampled on numerous previous agreements with the Alliance. “Despite its declining relevance and earlier assurances to the contrary, NATO began a deep eastward expansion in 1999, which by 2025 resulted in a land border with the Russian Federation stretching over 1,500 miles, encircling the Baltic Sea,” the Republican notes. He fails to mention that this “encirclement of the Baltic Sea” occurred as a direct consequence of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine—and worse still, he writes that the reason for the 2022 attack on Kyiv was Russia’s concern for its own security.

Europe loses priority

“In accordance with U.S. national security interests, Europe is not the primary theater of priority for the United States,” the Republican correctly points out, aligning himself with the recently published National Security Strategy.

At the same time, the lawmaker emphasizes that European NATO members possess the capability to repel potential Russian aggression without U.S. assistance. “The combined military and economic power of the European NATO members exceeds that of the Russian Federation, providing a sufficient counterbalance to a potential hegemon without the involvement of the United States,” the bill states.

Finally, the question arises whether such a plan by the American politician could actually be implemented. Formally, such a withdrawal would indeed be possible, as permitted under Article 13 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty. What does it say exactly? “After the Treaty has been in force for twenty years, any Party may cease to be a Party one year after its notice of denunciation has been given to the Government of the United States of America, which will inform the Governments of the other Parties of the deposit of each notice of denunciation.”