Poland Increases Arms Exports. Ukraine and What’s Next? [COMMENTARY]

As in previous years, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has prepared a report on Polish military equipment exports. The publication of the 2023 report is required by law and Poland’s international obligations to maintain transparency in arms transfers.

For the second time, just like in 2022, the report does not include data on military equipment provided to Ukraine as a donation. Information regarding Poland’s military support to Ukraine remains classified.

However, the document does include data on weapons sales to Ukraine in 2023. Huta Stalowa Wola sold 18 Krab self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine in 2023, the same number as in 2022. It is expected that the final 18 of the 54 ordered Krabs will be exported in 2024. Additionally, 54 Krabs were donated by Poland to Ukraine in 2022.

Other Polish companies sold the following to Ukraine:

• 49 Oncilla armored vehicles;
• 1 SKOT R-3M armored personnel carrier;
• 1 Curt Spartan armored vehicle;
• 22 120 mm mortars.
• Polish arms exports in 2023, as per categories on UN Conventional Arms Register.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) report, in line with the UN Conventional Arms Register, Polish businesses also sold:

• 1 BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle to the Czech Republic;
• 8 WZT-3 ARVs to the Czech Republic;
• 1 MT-LB armored personnel carrier to Germany;
• 1 BTR-60 armored personnel carrier to Germany;
• 1 MT-LB armored personnel carrier to the USA;
• 2 122mm howitzers to Germany;
• RBS15 Mk2 missiles to Sweden;
• 17 Piorun MANPADS to Estonia;
• 84 Piorun MANPADS to Latvia;
• 70 Piorun MANPADS to Norway.

It’s noteworthy that the data submitted to the UN differs from the MFA report. For 2023, Poland reported exporting 87 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, while the MFA only listed 51.

Poland’s resale of RBS15 Mk2 missiles to Sweden is also interesting. As part of a contract to modernize small missile boats, Poland acquired RBS15 Mk3 missiles. Eight legacy Mk2 missiles were sold back to Sweden after receiving the newer ones. The Mk 2 missiles were a temporary solution, associated with the offset. After the delivery of Mark 3 missiles, Mark 2 ones were transferred to the Military Property Agency who handled the resale to Sweden.

The MFA’s report highlights both the value of export licenses issued and the actual export value. There were major discrepancies between these values, as in previous years. In 2023, licenses worth €10.788 billion were issued, while the actual export value was only €1.753 billion - 16% of the licensed amount.

Part of the export licensed in 2023 will be taking place in the future, but most won’t be. Historical data supports this. In 2018, 31% of the licensed exports were realized, 20% in 2019, 28% in 2020, 9% in 2021, and 21% in 2022.

Polish military exports are divided into 22 categories under international agreements. The largest category, amounting to nearly €590 million, is ammunition and fuses, and related, specifically designed components (ML category).

The second-largest, valued at over €497 million, is bombs, torpedoes, rockets, missiles, and related equipment and military-grade special-purpose accessories, and components of specific design (ML 4 category).

The third, totaling nearly €237 million, is land vehicles and their components (ML 6), and the fourth, at over €236 million, is aircraft, aircraft lighter than air, UAVs, aircraft engines, aircraft equipment, and related equipment (ML 10). Interestingly, no fully assembled armed helicopters were exported from Poland in 2023.

Data on entities importing the Polish military equipment is also interesting. Ukraine was the top importer of Polish arms in 2023, purchasing weapons worth €1.419 billion. The U.S. ranked second with €118 million, followed by Spain (€26 million), and Germany (€24 million). Other notable importers include Norway (€21 million), Switzerland (€21 million), the Czech Republic (€19 million), Latvia (€18 million), and France (€16 million). Remaining countries made smaller procurements in Poland, below €10 million.

Polish arms exports in 2023 were conducted by a broad range of Polish companies, including large manufacturing corporations and small businesses.

The better results for the Polish arms industry in 2023, compared to 2022 and especially earlier years, is unfortunately due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Equipment, ammunition, and explosives worth €1.419 billion were sent to Ukraine, making up 81% of Poland’s arms exports last year. In 2022, this figure was 68%.

While the overall financial performance of Poland’s arms industry in 2022–2023 has improved significantly compared to earlier weaker years, this is primarily due to the war in Ukraine. Worryingly, aside from Ukraine, Poland’s arms industry has not yet found other large markets for its products.