R-GRID vs. Blackouts: A new tool for energy security in an era of hybrid warfare

In response, the R-GRID (Resilient Grid Simulator) project is an innovative simulator for resilience assessment and crisis rehearsal across a wide range of threat scenarios, enabling operators and public institutions to plan and prepare more effectively for potential crises.

Speaking about R-GRID’s importance, potential, and development directions are: Maciej Kluczyński - President of the Polish Association for National Security (PTBN), NATO country Project Director (R-GRID). Łukasz Polak - Research Engineer at IDEAS NCBR, R-GRID Project Co‑Director. The conversation is moderated by Dr. Aleksander Olech, Head of International Cooperation and Editor‑in‑Chief at Defence24.com.

Dr. Aleksander Olech: Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine has demonstrated the critical importance of energy infrastructure to the functioning of the state, and it has become one of the main targets of attacks. Could you therefore explain what the R-GRID project is and what the main motivations behind its creation were?

Maciej Kluczyński (PTBN): The growing threats to critical infrastructure - particularly in the energy sector - were the primary reason for initiating the R-GRID (Resilient Grid Simulator) project. Observing events in recent years, above all Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, we see hostile actions carried out in cyberspace as well as hybrid operations aimed at power grids. The war in Ukraine has shown how severe the consequences can be when grid operations are disrupted. Our goal is to create a tool that not only enables a better understanding of potential crisis scenarios but also allows solutions to be tested in a safe simulation environment.

Łukasz Polak (IDEAS NCBR): Technologically, R-GRID is a simulator that uses artificial intelligence to analyze highly complex power systems. This allows us to study grid behavior in the face of failures, overloads, or attacks, and then propose measures to increase its resilience deliver operator‑ready insights (e.g., contingency ranking, N‑1/N‑k margins, service‑quality indicators). It was crucial for us to combine the knowledge of security and energy experts with the capabilities offered by modern AI. Only with such an interdisciplinary approach can we create practical tools that support the state and operators in preparing for crises.

Kluczyński: I would like to emphasize that the project is strategic in nature because it concerns the resilience of one of the pillars of a state’s functioning - the power system. A blackout or disruption of grid operations is not only an economic problem, but also a matter of citizens« safety and defense capabilities. Therefore, R-GRID is intended to enable early preparation for crises before they occur.

The project has an international dimension. Could you outline which institutions are participating in the project and what roles they play?

Kluczyński: The project is funded by NATO under the Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme. The consortium brings together partners from three countries - Poland, Ukraine, and Finland -each contributing unique competencies: Polish Association for National Security (PTBN) is responsible for project coordination and the strategic component, including security analysis and threat scenarios; Laurea University of Applied Sciences (Laurea) contributes experience in research on hybrid threats and infrastructure resilience; Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) shares knowledge drawn from wartime experience and real attacks on power grids.

Polak: The technological component is handled by IDEAS NCBR, a Polish research and development center focused on artificial intelligence. Our task is to develop models and algorithms that replicate the behavior of power systems and test their resilience under crisis conditions.

What failure or attack scenarios can be simulated with R-GRID?

Polak: We want to test a very broad spectrum of events - both typical technical failures and situations involving deliberate actions by an adversary. We can simulate, for example, the sudden loss of a large generation source, overloads in the transmission grid, errors in control systems, or the effects of extreme weather events. Importantly, AI models capture interdependencies and cascading effects, providing a realistic view of crisis evolution at local, national, and regional scale.

Kluczyński: R-GRID also makes it possible to study hybrid scenarios that combine different forms of impact. This could be a cyberattack on control systems combined with physical sabotage, or a disinformation campaign that sparks public panic. Such events can be synchronized with specific moments - for example, during cold snaps or heat waves when the grid is operating at the limits of its capacity. These are precisely the kinds of scenarios we see in Ukraine’s real-world experience, where the energy sector has become one of the main targets of attacks.

To what extent have experiences from the war in Ukraine influenced the project’s development?

Kluczyński: The war in Ukraine has shown that energy infrastructure is a strategic target and can be used as a tool of pressure. Missile strikes, drone attacks, acts of sabotage, and cyber operations have confirmed that the adversary targets the energy sector to paralyze the state. Therefore, our simulator must account not only for classic failures, but also for hybrid scenarios in which an energy crisis is part of a broader military and political strategy.

How does R-GRID use artificial intelligence to model and strengthen the resilience of energy infrastructure?

Polak: Artificial intelligence makes it possible to analyze and predict the behavior of complex energy systems. We can simulate many scenarios simultaneously, identify bottlenecks, and indicate which remedial actions are the most effective. Importantly, AI enables forecasting of future system states, not just post-event analysis. On this basis, the decision-support layer recommends and prioritizes mitigation actions (e.g., reconfiguration, dispatch of distributed energy resources, corrective switching, controlled load shedding).

Does the project focus exclusively on the energy sector, or are applications in other critical infrastructure sectors also envisaged?

Kluczyński: Yes, the project focuses on energy, because it is the foundation of all other critical infrastructure sectors. Without electricity, other critical sectors will not function - or will face severe difficulties - such as transportation, communications, banking, and healthcare. However, we assume that the simulator’s methodology and architecture will be universal in nature and, in the future, will also find applications in other areas, e.g., logistics or transportation systems.

I assume that almost every research and development project encounters various difficulties. The R-GRID project is surely no exception. What are the biggest technological and organizational challenges?

Polak: The biggest challenge is the sheer scale and complexity of power systems. We are talking about networks comprising thousands of elements that react within fractions of a second to changes in load or failures. To reproduce such processes, we need tremendous computing power and very precise mathematical models. Another challenge is integrating diverse data sources - from technical parameters of grid operation and weather data to information about potential hybrid threats.

The second aspect concerns organizational issues. The project requires cooperation between AI experts, engineers, grid operators, and security specialists. Everyone brings a different perspective, and our task is to build a solution that is technologically advanced yet practical and useful.

How can R-GRID support government institutions and operators in security planning?

Kluczyński: R-GRID is a practical tool that supports preparedness for crisis situations. Public-sector institutions gain access to an analytical platform that allows users to test scenarios and making better‑informed assessments. Infrastructure operators can rehearse responses to failures without risking the real grid, checking which decisions yield the best outcomes. This makes it possible to strengthen technical resilience and identify potential weak points in the system.

What challenges does the team face in the further development of the project?

Kluczyński: The hardest part is convincing operators to share data and implement the tool in practice. This is sensitive information, so caution is warranted. The key will be to build trust and demonstrate that simulations can also be conducted on anonymized data.

Polak: A second challenge is integrating different types of threats into a single model. Developing algorithms that reflect the complexity of grid operations is a major undertaking—but a necessary one. Modern crises are complex, and only within a coherent simulation can resilience be assessed realistically and effective countermeasures identified.

The project is scheduled to conclude in the first half of next year. How do you both see the further possibilities for developing the R-GRID simulator?

Polak: We want the simulator to evolve toward greater scalability and flexibility. It should make it possible to adapt to the specifics of different countries and operators without having to build everything from scratch. It will also be crucial to combine data from many sources so the model is as reliable as possible.

Kluczyński: Looking ahead, we want the project not to end at the R&D stage but to become a tool that supports infrastructure resilience. In June 2025, I had the opportunity to present the project’s concept in Brussels at the forum of the Council of the EU Working Party on Resilience of Critical Entities (PROCIV-CER). The discussion confirmed that there is a clear need across Europe for solutions that make it possible to simulate complex scenarios and plan security measures more effectively. In this context, we are also considering developing a commercial version of R-GRID dedicated to grid operators and energy companies.