Merz’s failed reset: Germany begins discussing a new chancellor

Friedrich Merz attempted to use a forced cabinet reshuffle to reset his struggling government. Within days, the effort descended into further disarray. The misstep has revived speculation among the Christian Democrats over whether Hendrik Wüst, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, might eventually replace him.

The reshuffle was triggered by Jens Spahn, a senior Merz ally, who resigned as leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group following a surrogacy controversy. In response, Merz shifted Chancellery Chief Thorsten Frei to the faction leadership. He then promoted Health Minister Nina Warken to run the Chancellery and sent CDU Secretary-General Carsten Linnemann to the Health Ministry. However, the plan unravelled when the dismissal of Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder leaked to the public before a successor was secured. Merz’s first choice for the role withdrew, leaving Schnieder in political limbo for days. Adding to the turmoil, CDU lawmakers in Rhineland-Palatinate refused to meet with the chancellor, citing a breakdown of trust and respect. Steffen Bilger was ultimately nominated for the transport portfolio at a much later stage.

The political fallout extends well beyond a single mismanaged appointment. A recent Forsa poll places the AfD at 27 percent and the CDU/CSU at just 21 percent. This marks the conservative bloc’s weakest polling since the 2025 election. Currently, a mere 15 percent of voters are satisfied with Merz’s performance, a figure that includes less than half of his own party’s supporters. As a result, Wednesday’s normally routine vote to formally install Frei as parliamentary leader has morphed into an immediate test of the chancellor’s authority.

Wüst, who governs Germany’s most populous state, has publicly dismissed talk of a “chancellor swap” as nonsense. Furthermore, no senior CDU figure has openly called for Merz to step down. The chancellor is also shielded by Germany’s constructive vote of no confidence mechanism, which requires the Bundestag to elect a successor with an absolute majority to remove a sitting leader. Still, the upcoming September elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania represent a critical pressure point. Should the AfD translate its national lead into landmark regional victories, the conservative alliance will face a stark new reality. The pressing question will no longer be whether Merz is unpopular, but whether keeping him in power poses the greater risk.