Not only Romania. Americans will leave other countries

The Romanian Ministry of Defence announced on Wednesday that the United States has decided to reduce the size of its forces on NATO’s eastern flank. One thousand U.S. soldiers will remain in Romania, and the withdrawal of the rotational brigade will probably also concern countries such as Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria.

At the moment there is no information that the discussed reductions would affect Poland. Deputy Prime Minister and Polish Minister of Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that Warsaw has not received information about the withdrawal of American troops from the Vistula. The Estonian Minister of Defence Hanno Pevkur spoke in a similar tone, saying that „the United States has made an important decision to maintain its military presence” in his country. Americans are also to remain in Lithuania.  

Putting on a brave face?

An important question remains about the reaction of the most interested party — namely the Romanian government. As Kamil Całus, an analyst at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), noted, those in power in Bucharest have been stubbornly repeating publicly that Washington’s decision to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Romania is not a surprise to them, although in reality it may come as something of a surprise.

According to the OSW analyst for Romania, despite being aware of the impending changes, the authorities in Bucharest were quietly hoping that the reduction would not affect them. „According to some sources, in recent days they had even been receiving reassuring signals from the American side on this matter. The very fact that the press conference with the participation of Defence Minister Ionuța Moșteanu was convened very quickly and without prior preparation (journalists found out about it only an hour earlier) indicates that Washington’s move was nevertheless a surprise to them. The minister’s appearance was provoked, moreover, by an article published a little earlier in the Kyiv Post which predicted exactly such a development of events, thereby triggering a media storm in Romania,” the expert said.  

„The current governing coalition and the country’s president, Nicușor Dan, are trying to put on a brave face, arguing primarily that Romania remains a faithful ally of the United States and will continue to host about 1,000 U.S. Army soldiers on its territory. It is emphasised that the planned reduction is small (the country will lose fewer than half of the American servicemen stationed there) and that it will not affect Romania’s security,” he continued, noting that Romania’s rulers are trying to explain that Washington’s decision is understandable in light of the reorientation of U.S. foreign policy and the focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

In addition — as Kamil Całus claims — the Americans« decision may be used in internal political struggle in Romania. Part of the opposition (the radical right from the AUR party, including the recent presidential candidate George Simion) believes that the withdrawal of some U.S. troops from the country is a failure of the ruling team, which in connection with recent events should resign.

„This rhetoric has been used by the radical Romanian right before. Fuel for the anti-government narrative was also the recent U.S. decision to withdraw Romania from the U.S. visa waiver programme. AUR also presented that step of the Biden administration as proof of the government’s poor relations with the American authorities,” our interlocutor added. 

What happens now?

The planned U.S. reduction will result in around 3,500 allied troops being stationed in Romania, of which one thousand will be Americans. It is worth noting here that such a number means that allied servicemen will still be stationed on the Dâmbovița river in greater numbers than before 2022 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. „The position of U.S. forces in Europe remains larger than for many years,” an anonymous NATO official noted, quoted by journalist Teri Schulz, who said that we are now witnessing the gradual unveiling of a new American strategy, which should soon see the light of day in its entirety. 

„Unfortunate reported US decision to withdraw some forces from Romania. Not a catastrophe, however. At first glance, feels less like a bad strategic shift and more like an internal USG compromise between different factions. Not glorious but not fatal to European security,” summed up former U.S. ambassador to Warsaw Daniel Fried (currently at the Atlantic Council). 

It is also worth noting the position of the Polish Ministry of National Defence, sent in response to questions from the editorial staff of Defence24.pl after the information about the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from Romania.

The Polish-American alliance is strong and brings concrete actions to strengthen security. We have no signals that the USA plan to reduce their presence in Poland, either bilaterally or within the alliance. Our priorities in defence cooperation with Washington remain unchanged. The priorities include a broad spectrum of defence cooperation, including the presence of American forces in Poland, the development and acquisition of technology and armaments, and strengthening deterrence and defence within NATO. This is also evidenced by the statements of US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who during bilateral talks stated that relations between the USA and Poland are becoming stronger day by day. Overall, approximately 10,000 American soldiers are currently on the territory of the Republic of Poland.
Polish Ministry of Defence