90% emission reduction till 2040 – are we setting the bar too high?

In February 2024, the European Commission introduced a proposed climate target for 2040, recommending a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels. Establishing another benchmark between 2030 (when EU countries are expected to achieve a 55% reduction according to Fit for 55) and 2050 (attaining the goal of climate neutrality in line with the Green Deal) is intended to „confirm the EU’s determination in fighting climate change”.

Ambitious plans from the Commission… and Europe?

According to Linda Kalcher from Strategic Perspectives, the EC’s proposal is a wise economic and security choice. „The EU can no longer afford to dependence on expensive and unstable fossil fuels which cost us over 160 bln EUR annually”, Kelcher emphasised. Given that only 10 years separate 2040 from the EU’s full climate neutrality goal, such a high emission reduction should not come as a surprise. Nevertheless, the Commission’s proposal already stirred significant debate among member states a year ago. The EC notes that the controversial proposal is based in part on recommendations from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.

The proposal is also supported by the results of public consultations. According to them, 73% of respondents were in favour of accelerating the energy transition – 80% among individuals and 64% among organisations. However, it’s worth noting that 26% of responses came from Germany and 14,2% from Belgium. Respondents from all other member states accounted for less than 8% of all submissions (Poland ranked 15^th with 1,54%). Results were also weighted down by small, medium and large enterprises.

Let’s not forget that today’s proposal is merely the beginning of the EU’s legislative path. In mid-July, the draft will be formally discussed by environment ministers in the Council of the European Union, before the potential vote on September 18 and the text’s submission to the European Parliament. „We are acting quickly because we want to set our 2040 target before the UN COP30 climate conference in Brazil, this November. I believe that most member states support our actions”, said Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra at the press conference. In response to French concerns, additional consultations will be held at the EU level in September.

The final version of the law may differ from the initial assumptions. Nevertheless, the Commission is sending a clear signal about the political direction – one that is not necessarily supported evenly across all EU member states.

Competitiveness, pragmatism and China

According to the Commission, a 90% emissions reduction would boost the competitiveness of European businesses and provide the predictability for investors. Although concerns over exactly these issues are increasingly raised as arguments for slowing the green transition.

„The 55% emissions reduction target for 2030 is already difficult for Poland. One can assume that the 2040 targets will be also be unattainable for us”, said Climate and Environment Minister Paulina Henning-Kloska in early March last year. Similarly, in November 2024, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that some emissions targets are „disarming European economies”. „How can we even talk about the competitiveness of European, including Polish, industry if we have the most expensive energy in the world? It’s simply unfeasible”, he added after the summit in Budapest.

While opposition to the Green Deal was frequent under the Law and Justice government, a re-evaluation of green transition plans by Civic Coalition members is relatively new. Similar rhetoric is also emerging in other European countries. For instance, on June 26 at the EU summit in Brussels, President Emmanuel Macron raised the 2040 target—even though it wasn’t on the official agenda. „This should allow for a discussion on the conditions needed to maintain our competitiveness and achieve the 2050 climate neutrality goal. (…) We’re maintaining the 2050 target, but we’re being pragmatic about how we get there” – Macron told [Le Monde (https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2025/06/26/climat-la-france-remet-en-cause-l-objectif-europeen-de-90-d-emissions-de-co-en-2040_6615927_3244.html). It’s no secret that the French president wants the EC to recognize nuclear power as a zero-emission energy source on par with wind and solar.

Criticism is also coming from the Czech Republic, which wants to protect the competitiveness of its heavy industry. Environment Minister Petr Hladík, quoted byEkonomický deník, emphasised that he has long demanded the EC conduct impact assessments for specific sectors like chemical, glass, and steel industries. „Let’s not set new climate targets \[climate-related – Ed. note, Energetyka24\] politically but based on data and analysis”, Hladík stressed. Prague also hopes to delay the launch of ETS 2 in the context of transport fuels and heating.

The Italian government, on the other hand, is calling for the target to be lowered to 80–85%, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arguing that the green transition has been carried out „at the expense of entire sectors of production and industry”. Referring to electromobility and the ban on selling combustion-engine cars after 2035, Meloni said emissions reduction should „defend and promote European production”, safeguarding jobs. More and more European politicians and industry representatives point to China’s competitive edge in green technologies—especially in rare earth metal supply chains and solar panels.

Divisions within the EU are becoming increasingly visible. Denmark will likely insist on maintaining an ambitious climate policy and will not allow emission targets to be lowered during its presidency of the EU Council. Spain also strongly supports the Commission’s proposal, best exemplified by the firm stance of Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera. In January 2024, Ribera urged the EC to adopt an ambitious climate target for 2040, while highlighting that the green transition must remain „economically viable”. Her call was signed by representatives of Bulgaria, Denmark, Portugal, Austria, Germany, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. Berlin also supports the 90% threshold, calling it the absolute minimum.

Scientists: We Don’t Have Time to Hesitate

The EU Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change fuelled the debate by recommending a 90–95% reduction target by 2040. According to Vice-Chair Prof. Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, this is not only achievable but, in the EU’s, strategic interest. „Climate change is not an isolated crisis—it amplifies others”, said Prof. Ottmar Edenhofer, Chair of the Advisory Board.

Surprisingly, scientists« voices have not been drowned out in public debate. In early June this year, the Advisory Board strongly criticized the proposal to use international carbon credits to substitute for EU emissions. The idea, presented by Commissioner Hoekstra in late May, aims to introduce flexibility for member states in reaching the 90% target by allowing them to pay for emissions-reduction projects abroad. As a result, EU green investments in another country would be counted toward emission reductions within the EU, rather than in the country where, for example, a solar plant was built.

At today’s press conference, the EC maintained its position, arguing that carbon credits are necessary to support EU industrial competitiveness and innovation. As Bernd Weber, Director General of the Energy and Climate Policy and Innovation Council (EPICO), noted, properly certified international projects „can broaden the pathway to CO₂ reduction”. He stressed that only „robust, transparent systems build trust.” However, the idea has met with scepticism from climate analysts such as Martin Birk Rasmussen of CONCITO. According to Rasmussen, the proposal could create new „political, environmental, and economic” problems.

Throwing the Baby Out with the Bathwater?

Speaking before the European Parliament, Prime Minister Tusk warned that high energy prices could lead to „the collapse of many democratic governments”. „We cannot afford a lack of competitiveness”, he added, stressing the need to protect the climate while also ensuring the financial stability of citizens. This view seems to be gaining traction among many European governments that fear public discontent could be exploited by right-wing populists such as the AfD.

At the press conference, both Commissioner Hoekstra and Vice-President Ribera strongly emphasised the importance of maintaining—or rather regaining—European competitiveness and innovation in green technologies. They aimed to address concerns raised by member states while highlighting the need for a pragmatic approach that supports industry without slowing the green transition. „We want to be pragmatic and humble, but also firm in our belief that \[a 90% reduction – ed. Energetyka24\] is the right path toward a better industry and society”, said Commissioner Teresa Ribera.

The European Commission hears the concerns raised by member states. Brussels decision-makers are not blind to the situation facing European industry. However, according to Ribera and Hoekstra, the EU should maintain its „green leadership” in climate goals. „The EU single market is worth $17 trillion and includes 450 million citizens. That means any climate decision has global implications”, said Anne-Sophie Cerisola of Strategic Perspectives. It appears that the EC’s proposal will face extensive negotiations in both the EU Council and the European Parliament.