Merz’s first major election test ends in a bruising defeat

Friedrich Merz approached the Baden-Württemberg election hoping for a symbolic reconquest of Germany’s conservative southwest. Instead, the Greens retained their hold on first place, dealing the chancellor a politically damaging blow in his first major regional contest since taking office.

According to provisional official counts, the Greens secured 30.2 percent of the vote, narrowly edging out the Chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 29.7 percent. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 18.8 percent, while Merz’s federal coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), plummeted to 5.5 percent. Both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Left Party failed to clear the 5 percent parliamentary threshold.

While the Greens and CDU tied at 56 seats apiece, somewhat cushioning the numerical blow for the conservatives, the political reality remains a significant setback. The CDU had led in earlier polls and fully expected an outright victory in a state that is not just anotherLand, but a wealthy industrial powerhouse and a historical conservative stronghold.

The decisive factor in the race was GreenSpitzenkandidat Cem Özdemir. Election analyses point to a highly candidate-driven contest: pre-election surveys showed 47 percent of voters preferred Özdemir for minister-president, compared to just 24 percent for his CDU challenger Manuel Hagel. Özdemir also executed a notably pragmatic campaign, prioritizing industry, job security, and stability over traditional, ideological Green messaging.

The reverberations of this result will be keenly felt in Berlin. A ZDF election study revealed a distinct lack of federal momentum for the chancellor: only 13 percent of voters felt Merz aided the CDU’s state campaign, while 38 percent believed he was an active liability. Ultimately, while the CDU did improve upon its dismal 2021 performance, it failed the most critical test: demonstrating that Merz’s federal authority can reliably translate into regional triumphs. With a renewed Green-CDU state coalition now the most likely outcome, Merz is left to explain why his promised conservative resurgence failed to materialize.