Orbital deterrence against Russia? German space company has a secret plan

In an article published on November 5, the British newspaper The Times revealed what it described as “Europe’s secret mission to build space missiles with ‘unlimited range’”. According to the newspaper’s findings, the German company ATMOS Space Cargo is working on a concept for a conventional orbital weapon that would use its space cargo capsule technology to strike ground targets.

An orbit-to-surface weapon with unlimited range

Although technical details have not been disclosed, the general operating principle behind the Precision Orbital Deep Strike (PODS) capability is quite intuitive. It would likely rely on an orbital platform launched into space, which, when required to strike, would re-enter the atmosphere, protecting its conventional payload from extreme temperatures before releasing it to hit a designated target.

To turn this concept into reality, ATMOS intends to leverage the experience gained from developing its PHOENIX family of vehicles. The technologies developed for these reusable Orbital Transfer and Return Vehicles (OTRVs) could form the foundation of the future PODS system.

According to The Times, ATMOS is seeking a major partner from the European defence industry that could provide the technological expertise and industrial capabilities. Among the potential partners mentioned was MBDA, the European missile manufacturer, which could especially contribute its experience in designing and producing missiles, warheads, and guidance systems.

An orbital pillar of European deterrence?

The Times’ revelations make even more sense in light of a March article published on LinkedIn by Sebastian Klaus, CEO of ATMOS Space Cargo, in which he argued that Europe needs a powerful conventional deterrent to complement its nuclear deterrence. Klaus therefore urged Europe to develop precision orbital strike capabilities, “capable of neutralising any legitimate military target anywhere on Earth within 60 minutes, guided to centimetre accuracy”.

According to Klaus, such a weapon would not violate the provisions of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits the placement of weapons of mass destruction in orbit. At the same time, he argued that “It simply eliminates the adversary’s confidence that their aggressive act can be completed before a precise, proportionate response arrives.”

From a strategic perspective, the proposal makes sense, as it could provide Europe with a more flexible tool to deter Russia below the threshold of nuclear war. Precision orbital weapons capable of striking targets on Earth could significantly complicate Moscow’s strategic calculus. They could particularly increase the risks and uncertainty for Russia associated with a potential conventional attack by providing Europe with more versatile and proportionate means of response.

However, this is no magic solution, and developing such a system would require overcoming a number of serious technical and operational obstacles. The Times cites, among others, an anonymous military official who assessed that the trajectory of such a weapon would be relatively easy to detect and track. Another challenge lies in orbital mechanics itself, which would require advanced manoeuvring and guidance capabilities to enable the weapon to effectively strike targets across intercontinental distances.

Another challenge relates to thermal protection during atmospheric re-entry while maintaining sufficient velocity to avoid interception. All this means that it would likely be one of the most technologically advanced types of weaponry in the world, whose development could be further complicated by European legal and regulatory frameworks not adapted to such systems.

The ATMOS initiative also demonstrates the company’s ambitions to develop strictly military solutions of considerable strategic significance. This is no longer just dual-use technology, but a fully fledged weapon of a strategic nature. What is particularly interesting is that its development would rely on civilian space capsule technology, further underlining the inherently dual-use nature of space technologies, which ATMOS now intends to capitalise on.

A long road to reality. Challenges and opportunities for Europe and Poland

Of course, the weapon in question remains a prospect for the more distant rather than immediate future. We are talking about an early stage of development, concepts, and plans that still require adequate European funding and technological support from other companies. It will not stop Russian hybrid escalation today or next year, but with sufficient mobilisation, it could become one of the pillars of European deterrence by punishment against conventional Russian attacks, as part of broader deep precision strike capabilities.

The prospect of such a weapon one day influencing Russia’s strategic calculus could be strengthened by transforming the initiative into a broader European project implemented by an international consortium. Examples of this cooperation model can already be found in European initiatives to develop ground-based deep strike capabilities, such as the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) and the Deep Precision Strike Capability Investment Initiative.

The development of such a weapon also presents a major opportunity for Poland, not merely as a potential buyer, but as an active participant in its development through the involvement of domestic companies and resources. This is not just empty speculation. In June this year, ATMOS established a subsidiary in Kraków, ATMOS WORKS, specialising in space logistics and dual-use technologies.

The company has high hopes for the Polish market, while Polish capital is already present through the venture capital fund Balnord, which was one of the leading investors in its first funding round. Considering its geostrategic position, space ambitions, focus on developing deep precision strike capabilities, and above all, the company’s already close ties with Poland, the country should not merely watch this initiative closely.