East Front News #64: Will NATO shoot to Russian aircraft?; Elections in Moldova

Ukraine's future and NATO cooperation

In an interview for Defence24, Olena Shtokalo (National Guard of Ukraine „Azov”) warns that rushed peace proposals — including those associated with Donald Trump — risk rewarding Russian aggression and undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty. Kyiv faces long-term challenges: rebuilding destroyed infrastructure, sustaining military readiness, and maintaining allied support. The presence of foreign troops (training or deployments) remains politically sensitive and must be managed carefully. Looking ahead, Shtokalo underscores that Ukraine’s security hinges on deepening cooperation with NATO and wider Euro-Atlantic integration.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Reaction: yes. Shooting down a Russian aircraft: no

Recent incidents show Russia probing NATO along the entire eastern flank: mass drone incursions into Polish airspace on the night of 9–10 September and repeated fighter violations over Estonia on 19 September. The Alliance response followed a graduated, defensive playbook — interceptions, escorts, and Operation Eastern Sentry reinforcements — avoiding steps that could trigger escalation. Unlike Turkey’s 2015 downing of a Su-24 over a wartime theatre with pre-announced „red lines,” current NATO actions remain calibrated for peacetime air policing. The article argues for clearer deterrence messaging (including public thresholds for responses) while continuing a 4D approach: defence, deterrence, diplomacy, destroy — without entering open war with Russia.

Author: Aleksander Olech

High stakes in the Republic of Moldova

On 28 September, Moldova votes in parliamentary elections with regional repercussions. The ruling pro-EU PAS of President Maia Sandu faces a consolidated pro-Russian BEP bloc led by Igor Dodon, amid persistent reports of Russian interference (financing, disinformation, voter manipulation). Polls suggest PAS may fall short of a majority, with the Alternativa bloc (Alexandr Stoianoglo) a potential kingmaker — but with questions about its reliability for Western partners. Outcomes range from a strained pro-EU coalition to a BEP-led government or destabilisation attempts. Even a pro-Russian win is unlikely to turn Moldova into a „second Belarus,” yet it would complicate EU integration and Ukraine’s strategic environment.

Author: Adam Burakowski

NATO ready to shoot down Russian jets if needed

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that the North Atlantic Alliance is prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft violating the airspace of member states. „We first assess the situation. But if necessary, we will do what is required” - he declared.

During a meeting with journalists, Mark Rutte referred to Friday’s incursion of three armed MiG-31 fighter jets into Estonian airspace. According to the Dutch politician, in this particular case „there was no need” to shoot down the Russian aircraft. „That does not mean that, if necessary, we would not shoot down an aircraft immediately. We first assess the situation. But if necessary, we will do what is required,” he added.

Author: Michał Górski

Turkish AWACS helps Lithuania

The airspace of NATO’s eastern flank has received another reinforcement. This time, Lithuania benefited, with support coming from Turkey.

Turkey deployed an airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS), the Boeing 737 AEW&C, known as the Peace Eagle, to Lithuania. This marks another significant gesture by NATO member states in response to the Russian airspace violations against Alliance countries that occurred in September.

Author: Michał Górski

If you would like to receive this newsletter, please sign up by clicking HERE .

East Front News is a weekly newsletter and article on Defence24.com summarizing the past week’s most important events concerning security and the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region. It includes original opinions and comments, along with key news items significant from a Polish perspective.