Denmark warns of Russia. How worried should NATO’s eastern members be?

“The situation is currently the most serious since the end of the Cold War,” Bruus stated in a report by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE). The document categorises the threat level of sabotage targeting the Danish armed forces and military provocations against NATO states as “high”. The Minister recalled that “Russia has already carried out attacks of a kind that were not observed even six months ago.” He cited instances of sabotage in Europe, an incident involving a Russian drone at Leipzig airport, and the firing of flares from a Russian warship towards a Danish military helicopter.

Ahrenkiel assessed that although he does not expect a conventional Russian attack on Denmark, there is a small but growing risk that the Russians will launch an armed attack against a NATO member state bordering Russia. Such an attack could occur despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. “As a NATO member, Denmark could be drawn into a conflict if another member of the Alliance were attacked,” he stated. The FE report emphasised that a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO member is unlikely. “However, it cannot be ruled out; this is a new development,” said the head of intelligence.

The Danish Security and Intelligence Service raised the threat level for cyberattacks on Danish infrastructure from “medium” to “high”. The warnings from Denmark are entirely justified. Russia regularly tests the reactions of NATO member states, for instance, through frequent violations of their airspace using drones, missiles, or manned aircraft. A full-scale armed confrontation is unlikely – opening a second front would only worsen Russia’s situation, especially if a potential attack were met with a response from the Alliance.