Germany rises in defence spending, U.S. dominates

Global defence expenditure has exceeded $2.9 trillion, marking the eleventh consecutive year of growth. The increase is largely driven by Europe and Asia, while the United States, China and Russia still account for more than half of global spending. This confirms a structural trend: the international environment is deteriorating, and states are responding through rearmament.

The United States remains the undisputed leader. With spending close to $950 billion, it maintains a scale of military capability that no other actor can match. Even temporary declines, such as reduced funding linked to Ukraine, do not change the overall trajectory. The U.S. continues to define the strategic ceiling for NATO and Western defence.

The most important development in Europe is Germany’s rise to 4th place globally. A 24% increase to over $110 billion is not just a reaction to the war in Ukraine, but a structural shift. Germany is entering a different category of military actors. This will directly impact the balance of power inside Europe and reshape expectations towards Berlin within NATO.

This also creates a visible contrast with France. While France remains ahead in terms of strategic capabilities—especially nuclear deterrence, expeditionary forces and operational experience—Germany is now clearly ahead financially. In practice, this means that Paris maintains qualitative advantages, but Berlin is building quantitative dominance. If this trend continues, the gap between political ambition and financial capacity on the French side will become increasingly difficult to manage.

France, ranked 9th with around $68 billion, remains a key military actor, but its position reflects these structural constraints. Its global posture is still relevant, but its budget limits its ability to scale capabilities at the same pace as others. This is particularly important in the context of French ambitions to lead European defence initiatives.

Poland, although lower in the ranking, continues to increase its spending dynamically, reflecting its position on NATO’s eastern flank. The trajectory is clear: rapid growth and large-scale modernisation. The challenge now is to convert spending into sustainable capabilities. Europe is rearming, but from a position of dependency. The United States remains central to the security architecture. European increases are significant, but they do not yet alter the global hierarchy.