The evolving role of the arms industry in defence

Driven by threats of invasion, defence spending is growing exponentially, thus creating a boom in the arms trade business. The desire of countries to accumulate weapons by all means creates a boost for the arms trade industry whether through direct purchase or through imports by better-resourced countries. Another element is the global arms race. Seen as a pre-emptive measure against possible attacks, it is often driven by fear and defence structures.

For countries in conflict, those threatened with conflict, and those seeking to send subtle messages about their military strength to their enemies, the arms trade provides a starting point for arms proliferation, thus boosting the arms trade industry. Whenever conflict breaks out, the arms trade industry is one of the biggest beneficiaries through arms sales. However, countries in conflict are not the only ones scrambling to purchase weapons; countries that feel threatened also strengthen their stockpiles for defence. This drives demand for arms, which, according to SIPRI, grew to $679 billion in 2024.

It was also reported that there was a 9.2% increase in the demand for weapons between 2016-2020 and 2021-2025. It is important to note that the United States of America is the biggest supplier of arms. The USA, France, and Russia have heavily relied on arms exports to support conflicts without extending boots on the ground. This can be seen in NATO’s support for Ukraine.  The arms trade doesn’t happen in isolation, but rather is the culmination of a defence threat, an arms race, and a business model. Most recently, the secretary of NATO has called for increased military production. This comes on the heels of the war involving the USA, Iran, and Israel.

Furthermore, the USA’s threat to annex Greenland left the majority of European countries and NATO members angry, further driving demand for arms stockpiling and military preparedness in case of an invasion. Such an increase is not only for defence but also serves as a form of foreign policy influence. Ukraine has been supported by neighboring countries through a supply of weapons, as has South Sudan in Sub-Saharan Africa. This illustrates how different countries are utilising weapons to assert influence and control in war-torn countries.

When it comes to foreign policy through the supply of weapons, the United States of America has been one of the countries that use it as part of its foreign policy. Despite the presence of the Arms Trade Treaty that guides the purchase, transfer, and export of weapons, it is rarely adhered to. This has been mainly driven by arms diversion. Beyond defence measures, the role of the arms trade keeps evolving, and this evolution drives foreign policy and the arms race.