Is Greece preparing for a drone war? Israel as a partner

Authors: Magdalena Ciupińska, dr Aleksander Olech

Greece is undergoing very large changes in its defense investment process. The correction does not stem solely from rivalry with Turkey, but rather from the nature of contemporary armed conflicts. Athens assesses that the mass use of unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles and loitering munitions — today mainly observed in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Sahel — will be a permanent feature of future wars. That is why the Greeks are already ahead of many European allies and are investing in new weapon systems.  

After years of a kind of stagnation and waiting, Greece has entered the largest modernization period in the history of its Armed Forces. Over the next 12 years Athens plans to allocate about €25 billion to strengthen military capabilities, including the modernization of F-16s and the purchase of Rafale fighters. This is part of a broader concept of technical development of the military and building a deterrence system. 

„Achilles Shield” will protect Greek skies

The main element of Greece’s modernization plan is to be the „Achilles Shield,” the Greek equivalent of Israel’s national air defence system. The initiative foresees the creation of a multi-layered defensive system covering air, missile and counter-drone protection, as well as components to counter surface and underwater threats. The cost of the „Achilles Shield” is estimated at around $2.8 billion. The system is to be launched by 2027. In practice this is part of much broader investments whose total value reaches about $3.5 billion.   

Air defences will have three layers based on Israeli solutions. Greece intends to integrate mobile short-range systems (SPYDER), medium-range (Barak MX) and long-range (SkyCeptor). The latter will replace the worn-out S-300 systems. As a result, Athens is moving away from an obsolete, inconsistent mix of Russian and American systems to a modern, unified and interoperable multi-layered defense that has proven itself in combat and is adapted to counter-drone missions.  

To date Greece has used the domestically developed Centauros electronic warfare system, which today mainly serves to counter unmanned aerial vehicles launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea. In 2026 serial production is planned to begin for two portable counter-drone systems, Iperion and Telemachus, which were designed to directly protect forces against swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles. 

It is worth adding that Greece does not only want to buy foreign technical solutions, but is also trying to build its own industrial capabilities. In the future this will reduce the risks associated with dependence on foreign suppliers.

Turkey brings Israel and Greece closer

Greek defence investments are directly related to the dynamic development of Turkish air defense. At the same time Turkey’s growing influence (both in selling its own armaments and in building industrial capabilities) is causing concern not only in Greece but also in Israel. The shared perception of the threat is conducive to tightening cooperation between the two states, which — it should be emphasized — have maintained close military and intelligence ties for more than a decade. 

Turkey is heavily investing in arms procurement. Production of systems by Bayraktar (including the Kızılelma) and TAI (Anka), and the deployment of the Atmaca and Tayfun missiles, cause Greece to feel pressure. In this context Athens« cooperation with Tel Aviv is not so much political as military. Without Israeli military technologies Greece has limited capabilities. 

Therefore Athens will treat Tel Aviv as a strategic partner in developing its own anti-missile and anti-drone capabilities. Moreover, the Hellenic Armed Forces, in cooperation with Israeli defense companies, have already begun building installations on islands in the eastern Aegean Sea.

Greece’s armed forces modernization plan covers not only air defense systems but also, among other things, the development of the navy. The backbone will be the FDI frigates purchased from France. Greece ordered three units for €3.3 billion (the shipbuilder Naval Group recently announced that Athens has placed an order for a fourth unit — ed.). At the same time Greece is strengthening its submarine capabilities, planning both modernization of Type 214 boats and the purchase of new units. It should be emphasized that France, which views Israel very negatively in some contexts (for example, by blocking Israeli companies at domestic defense trade shows), remains Greece’s leading ally.

Athens is acting. What about the rest of Europe?

By developing advanced counter-drone systems and tightening technological and defence cooperation with Israel, Greece shows it is preparing for new threats, especially those involving unmanned systems. Whether the motivation is armament against Turkey or the threat from Russia, Athens« actions fit into broader protection not only of NATO’s eastern flank but also its southern flank. Ultimately, they increase security in Europe.  

Although in our assessment Greece will not be exposed to a direct air threat in the coming years, Athens« decisions and arms purchases demonstrate consistent, long-term planning for adverse scenarios. An increasingly clear trend is the abandonment of viewing the modernization of the Hellenic Navy and air defense as two separate challenges. This results from the specifics of operations in the Aegean Sea, where the maritime and air domains naturally overlap. Greece must both secure its coastline and operate freely in that area.  

Over the next decade Greece may in fact be the only country in Southeastern Europe (i.e., Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Croatia and Cyprus) to possess next-generation multi-layered air defense — systems covering short, medium and long ranges.

This approach is uncommon in other countries of the region, which have partial or single capabilities, often based on older-generation equipment. The key challenge for Athens, which recently went through a serious economic crisis, will remain maintaining stable funding and developing the industrial and military capabilities necessary to effectively deploy and sustain the new weapon systems. From a Polish point of view the most important thing is that Greece is rearming. Any NATO country with modern military equipment is worth its weight in gold.  

Authors: Magdalena Ciupińska, dr Aleksander Olech