India and China: Further steps toward a thaw

On 25 August, China’s and India’s national security advisers, Wang Yi and Ajit Doval, met in Beijing. The border was the central issue. For years it has been the most serious problem in the relationship. In recent decades there have been incidents – some of them bloody, as in the Galwan Valley in 2020. Both sides now appear determined to prevent such clashes, or at least to contain their consequences. They agreed to establish new military hotlines and working groups on boundary delimitation. They also discussed expanding pilgrim traffic to Mount Kailash and Lake Manasarovar. In short, they took a series of steps to rebuild trust badly damaged a few years ago. They remain, however, far from restoring even the pre-Galwan status quo. The talks were not easy; it took both sides 24 hours to publish statements.

The boundary is still the most urgent issue between New Delhi and Beijing. Other files look better, or simply different. China is now India’s largest trading partner, having recently overtaken the United States, with which trade has softened amid difficult tariff negotiations – though the US remains the main destination for Indian exports. India matters far less to China as a commercial partner: it ranks around 12th or 13th, while the United States remains China’s principal trading partner.

Direct flights between India and China, suspended for years after COVID-19, resumed only relatively recently. Chinese apps remain blocked in India. These are secondary issues compared with the still-unsettled border.

Both sides are nonetheless taking further steps toward a thaw. The next leaders« encounter, this time in a multilateral setting, is under way in Bishkek at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. In a few weeks they will meet again, at the BRICS summit in India.

Will New Delhi and Beijing continue to rebuild mutual trust? Both treat the relationship as one instrument among several in their foreign policy, and both have mastered the art of leveraging closer or cooler ties with each other to shape other relationships. What is at stake includes relations with the United States, the European Union (where an FTA is approaching entry into force) and Russia.