From one space revolution to another: Harnessing space mining for Europe’s Strategic Renewal

The first space race was marked by a rapid sequence of revolutions: the first satellites, the first humans in space, and finally the Moon landings of the late 1950s and 1960s. Yet these achievements were driven by extremely costly national programs that drained state budgets. Before long, the pace of progress slowed into a steadier evolution. The post-1990s and early 2000s saw a shift toward greater institutionalization and international cooperation in orbit, shaped largely by a favorable geopolitical climate. It was in this environment that Europe laid the foundations of its civilian space power through its flagship navigation and Earth-observation programs: Galileo and Copernicus.

Yet, in recent years, the geopolitical climate has deteriorated, just as the new space revolution has fully taken off. Both developments have caught Europe off guard. Today, the Old Continent finds itself years behind American champions, who thrive in an increasingly competitive and innovative race, while also losing ground to China, which can mobilize vast resources and rapidly scale up its operations.

Europe is losing this space race

Europe is facing significant delays in developing reusable launch systems and large satellite constellations compared with the United States and China. Themis-Europe’s flagship demonstrator for low-cost rocket recovery and reuse—is currently being prepared at the Esrange Space Center in Sweden for its first prototype tests. The initial low-altitude „hop” is planned before the end of 2025, to be followed by two further tests in early 2026. This places Themis at roughly the stage SpaceX was in during 2012–2013, when the company was testing its Grasshopper vehicle—more than a decade ago. China, meanwhile, is already conducting high-altitude (~12 km) precision VTVL tests, positioning itself several years ahead of Europe, though its programs continue to face notable setbacks. In this context, Europe could still leverage proven technologies and accumulated know-how to accelerate Themis« development and potentially field its first operational reusable launcher in the early 2030s.

Europe is also losing ground in low-Earth orbit, which is becoming increasingly congested. The advent of reusable launch systems has dramatically reduced costs and increased launch frequencies, enabling the rapid deployment of unprecedented satellite mega-constellations. SpaceX’s Starlink exemplifies this revolution: in just six years, it has deployed over 8,000 satellites, now accounting for the majority of all active satellites. In response, China plans to place as many as 53,000 satellites into low-Earth orbit within the next five years. Both powers are racing to secure strategic positions at optimal altitudes, which are limited. Whoever occupies these orbits first is likely to dominate them for decades to come.

Europe’s plans, by contrast, appear far more modest. The largest project announced to date is IRIS, a constellation of 290 internet satellites, with initial services expected to begin in 2030. While this represents an important step toward securing a sovereign communications system for the continent, the constellation’s launch will likely face further delays, as satellite construction has not yet even begun.

Refocusing on what will follow: Space Mining

It is increasingly evident that these efforts come too little, too late for Europe to reclaim leadership in the current round of the space race. Nevertheless, they remain vital for safeguarding European sovereignty and autonomy in space and must therefore be pursued. With this in mind, it is essential to integrate the core innovations of the present revolution in order to better position Europe for the next phase of the space race.

Germany during the Industrial Revolution provides a fitting analogy for the proposed strategy. While the German states largely missed the first industrial revolution, initiated and dominated by Britain, the newly unified country managed to surpass London during the second wave in the 1870s. In a similar way, the ongoing space revolution will unfold in distinct waves, each defined by its own core technologies and characteristics, and each potentially led—and won—by different actors.

If the ongoing space revolution appears unwinnable, Europe should shift its focus to the next one: space mining. Whoever first succeeds in transporting minerals extracted from asteroids or the Moon back to Earth could secure an advantage comparable to that of Europeans during the Age of Discovery, when we were the first to exploit resources on a global scale and dominate the maritime routes that carried them home.

Earth’s resources are finite, particularly the most valuable and strategic rare-earth minerals. Sooner or later, humanity will have no choice but to seek them elsewhere. By investing in space mining technologies today, Europe could not only reinforce its long-term power but also contribute to global sustainability—potentially lowering the cost of critical materials and ushering in a new era of abundance.

The potential wealth is virtually limitless. According to popular estimates, mining just the ten most cost-effective nearby asteroids could yield profits of around US$1.5 trillion. Even more striking, Asteroid 16 Psyche alone is often valued at as much as US$700 quintillion—though such valuations are based on current market prices, which would inevitably collapse if those resources were actually brought to Earth.

Europe is already behind key actors

But the clock is already ticking, as both the United States and China recognize what is at stake. In 2015, Washington created a legal framework for the commercial exploration and recovery of space resources through the Space Launch Competitiveness Act. A 2020 executive order further established it as U.S. policy to encourage international support for such practices. Since then, the UAE, Japan, and India have followed suit with similar legislation and policies.

China’s ambitions in this field are even more far-reaching, as evidenced by the Tiangong Kaiwu initiative. It lays out a roadmap for establishing a space resource extraction system spanning the solar system by 2100, with large-scale asteroid mining envisioned as early as 2040. In Beijing, there is a growing conviction that space mining could become a key factor in future economic competition between nations.

That being said, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg is so far the only European nation to have shown significant interest in space mining. The smallest of the Benelux countries remains the only one with comprehensive legislation on the subject, providing legal certainty for companies engaged in the field. In 2020, the Luxembourg Space Agency established the European Space Resources Innovation Centre (ESRIC) to advance the scientific, technical, commercial, and economic aspects of space resource exploitation. However, with a budget totaling just €26 million through 2029, the initiative is unlikely to be sufficient for a true leap forward.

At the European level, the EU has only recently acknowledged that „space mining and resource use is now attracting significant interest as global space powers race to the Moon and deep space,” as stated in the European Commission’s vision for the European Space Economy unveiled in June. The document includes a section on Mining and Resource Utilisation, which vaguely notes that the Commission will support research and preparatory innovation activities, while examining the most appropriate legal frameworks for resource extraction and use.

How to prepare fertile ground for the evolution?

The global space mining industry is still at a very nascent stage, hampered by underinvestment and limited interest - especially in Europe. Yet this state of affairs will not last forever; sooner or later, someone will change it.

As argued above, the next wave of the space revolution could offer Europe an opportunity to reverse the setbacks suffered in the current phase. To seize it, Europe must begin preparing the ground now by creating a conducive environment to nurture such a revolution within its borders. This vision could be brought closer by building on the following broad guidelines:

• A long-term commitment by European countries will be paramount to delivering tangible results. Policymakers must recognize that returns on investment may take decades to materialize. The current sense of urgency in defence, energy, and fiscal matters should not distract from the potential sources of long-term strategic advantage.
• Much greater funding is required, both through public financing and private capital. Doing so at the European level would be the most cost-efficient approach. Establishing a Europe-wide consortium for space resource extraction—bringing together private companies, research centers, and the European Space Agency—could provide an effective way to pool resources and coordinate such a sophisticated endeavor.
• A robust European New Space sector will undoubtedly form the foundation for success in space mining, as progress is likely to be driven by commercial actors supported by public institutions, rather than the other way around. For this reason, the proposed EU Space Act and its goal of harmonizing European space law are more than welcome. At the same time, care must be taken to ensure that its regulations are not overly prescriptive, which could risk stifling innovation and driving up costs.
• The European Union must urgently establish a clear legal framework for the development of space mining. Such a framework should not only enable this activity but also avoid imposing overly stringent regulations.
• Formulating a European Space Mining Roadmap or Strategy that specifies objectives and sets clear milestones would be an ideal next step. Anchoring such a long-term project in a common vision would provide direction and motivation, while also lending legitimacy before the public.
• Developing specialized education programs and degrees in space mining would help build an indispensable knowledge base in the form of European expert and engineering cadres.
• Collaboration with like-minded partners will be essential, as space mining is both resource- and capital-intensive. International cooperation could help reduce costs and accelerate progress. Yet in the context of intensifying geopolitical competition, such partnerships must be anchored in broader security interests to avoid creating dependencies or strategic vulnerabilities.

Many critics argue that space mining will exacerbate inequality, extend human colonialism into space, and violate the principle of space as the common heritage of humankind enshrined in the Outer Space Treaty. Yet history consistently shows that those who lead in emerging revolutionary domains gain the power to shape their rules. Only by taking the lead in this revolution will Europe be able to establish inclusive norms in the field. Remaining absent would mean ceding responsibility to other national and commercial actors, who may be far less inclined to uphold rule-based governance.

Shifting from international to internal priorities, space mining aligns well with the EU’s broader agenda on sustainability, as it could reduce dependence on Earth-based extraction. It could be integrated into the framework of the European Green Deal by helping to secure critical raw materials for the green transition and by reducing the environmental footprint of terrestrial mining.

Beyond today’s challenges, Europe needs a bold and ambitious vision. The prospect of being the first to access virtually limitless space resources could inspire a new generation of explorers, while a nascent industry could become a powerful engine of Europe’s future economy. It would continue Europe’s rich heritage of discovery and industry, while contributing to the benefit of all humankind.

Harnessing the next revolution will however require decades of sustained investment, political will, and risk-taking—virtues that Europe has yet to fully embrace.

Author: Kacper Kremiec