NATO exercises near Kaliningrad. The US plays a key role

How do the NATO air exercises of 18 August translate into practical deterrence, and what do they say about the Alliance’s potential and the commitment of the United States? This question was answered by Artur Kacprzyk, an expert from the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).

NATO sends a clear signal

According to the expert, the NATO manoeuvres conducted on Tuesday, 18 August, were important for several reasons. They not only demonstrated specific military capabilities and led to their improvement but also communicated a willingness to conduct specific actions.

Firstly, they showed that the Alliance is capable of massing substantial air forces near Russia, and is doing so with significant participation from American forces, which are currently preoccupied mainly with Iran. As Artur Kacprzyk points out, choosing the Kaliningrad Oblast as one of the main targets should also be seen as a clear signal, indicating to the Kremlin “how vulnerable this part of its territory would be in the event of a conflict”.

Americans are not abandoning NATO

The analyst from the Polish Institute of International Affairs also points to the political significance of American involvement in the exercises. According to him, this is particularly important at a time when a significant reduction in the activity of US combat aircraft on NATO’s eastern flank has been observed in recent months. Kacprzyk recalled that the Americans – unlike several European countries – did not deploy fighters to our region as part of Operation Eastern Sentry.

“This is a significant manifestation of US commitment to protecting allies at a time when American involvement in NATO is becoming smaller and more uncertain. There have been many negative signals recently, from completed and announced reductions of US troops in Europe to transatlantic tensions regarding Iran or Greenland. Such exercises communicate that, despite these problems within the Alliance, Russia must still account for the risk of drawing the US into a conflict if it were to attack a NATO state,” claims Artur Kacprzyk, who adds that it is not only the fact of the American presence that is noteworthy, but the aircraft representing the US Air Force are equally important. This refers not only to aerial refuelling aircraft but also to combat machines – electronic warfare aircraft and F-35 multi-role fighters.

“The Americans clearly expect Europeans to be the first to send combat forces closer to the potential front. This fits into the NATO 3.0 concept promoted by the Pentagon. At the same time, the United States still provides crucial support in the form of reconnaissance, aerial refuelling, and command aircraft, with the possibility of sending additional combat forces in the event of escalation. It seems that this is precisely the kind of reinforcement that was recently practised,” Kacprzyk concluded.