Russia attacking NATO? Intelligence chiefs speak out

The latest series of Russian actions, directed not only at Ukraine but also at NATO countries, has triggered another debate on the threat posed by the Russian Federation. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s words delivered last week in the Sejm (the lower house of the Polish parliament) resonated widely across parts of the Alliance. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also recently spoke about a potential increase in Russian sabotage and even kinetic actions. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre referred directly to Tusk’s words, stating that the warnings from the Polish head of government must be taken seriously. The gravity of the situation was undoubtedly underscored by a meeting convened last Friday by French President Emmanuel Macron, where he presented the security situation to the country’s most important politicians.

Talks with Intelligence Chiefs

In response to these events, The Guardian published a summary of conversations with the heads of allied intelligence services whom the newspaper’s journalists have met in recent weeks. The interviewees included the head of the Czech BIS (Bezpečnostní informační služba – Security Information Service) Michal Koudelka, the director of the Latvian VDD (Valsts drošības dienests – State Security Service) Normunds Mežviets, and Thomas Nilsson, the head of the Swedish military intelligence service MUST (Militära underrättelse- och säkerhetstjänsten).

The beginning of the article offers some optimism for troubled European hearts. “We see no signs of an imminent attack,” Normunds Mežviets says directly. A representative of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs speaks in a similar vein, criticising those spreading panic on social media. “If there are reasons to fear an attack, I assure you: we will state it clearly. Until then, stay calm, carry on, and support Ukraine,” Jonatan Vseviov wrote on the X platform.

Ruling out direct, full-scale Russian aggression brings relief, especially to the states on NATO’s eastern flank. However, the lack of an immediate (current) threat of war does not mean that Europe can feel entirely safe.

Michal Koudelka points out that incidents on a smaller but dangerous scale cannot be excluded – for example, a local invasion of one of the Baltic states or a mass violation of NATO airspace by drones. In his view, Russia is pursuing an “escalate to de-escalate” tactic, exerting pressure on the West to discourage further assistance to Kyiv. The Czech officer also highlights the perfidy of Moscow’s actions, which deliberately strain the resources of European services, forced to verify numerous cases that are not always related to subversion.

Mežviets also speaks of attempts to intimidate Europe, noting that the Russians are increasingly targeting infrastructure supporting Ukraine (including trains and railway hubs) as well as facilities linked to the Western arms industry.

Another of Russia’s goals is to sow panic and create divisions within the North Atlantic Alliance. Thomas Nilsson emphasises: “I think Moscow would very much like to see endless discussions within NATO about Article 4 consultations that lead to nothing concrete.”

In all three cases, there is a conviction that the Russians will intensify sabotage activities aimed at European countries. And that is certainly not good news for us.