Turkish weapons for Ukraine. Is the risk of escalation growing?

Last weekend, information appeared online stating that the Turkish authorities had approved the sale of M39 ATACMS ballistic missiles, 12 M270 MLRS launchers, and a large stockpile of cluster munitions to Ukraine. The United States, which is the manufacturer of the aforementioned military equipment, has reportedly already expressed its consent for such a transaction.

When examining the Turkish approval, it is worth noting the range of the equipment being sold. It indicates that Ankara is primarily concerned with ensuring Ukraine is capable of defending its own territory, rather than attacking Russia hundreds of kilometres from the front line. This decision is dictated by fears of a nuclear strike, which were recently discussed by Türkiye’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan.

“When the war of attrition on the front transforms into attrition behind the front lines, the issue becomes a matter of whether you will continue to exist as a nation. You use all ultimate means at your disposal. If the destruction reaches this level, Russia may resort to the final option available to it. During my visit to Russia, it seemed that this issue might also come to light, as it was said that society is now demanding such a thing. This is a dangerous situation,” he said.

The statement by the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry was commented on by Jakub Palowski, deputy editor-in-chief of Defence24.pl, who noted that this declaration coincided with the US Congress notification regarding the sale of American weapons (owned by Türkiye) to Ukraine.

“The package includes ATACMS missiles with a range of up to approximately 165 km with cluster warheads, M270 MLRS launchers, lighter M26 rockets with a range of about 30 km or slightly more, and cluster shells for 203 mm guns. This weaponry would be very useful in deterring Russian ground operations. Apparently, Türkiye wants Ukraine to be able to effectively defend its territory or even attack Russian rocket launchers right at the border, but does not want it to take the war deep into the rear. Because the latter has been deemed by the Turkish Foreign Minister as threatening escalation,” he concluded.