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German simulation concerning Russian aggression against the Baltic states
On 5 February, the conclusions of a simulation were presented. The exercise was conducted by German experts and assumed an attack by the Russian Federation on selected NATO member states. The conclusions drawn from the war-game are not optimistic for the Alliance.
The simulation — a form of a war game — was carried out jointly by the German War Gaming Center at the Helmut Schmidt University of the Bundeswehr in Hamburg and the editorial team of the newspaperDie Welt. Participants included NATO military officers, parliamentarians and experts. Its hypothetical scenario assumed that in October 2026 the Russian Federation launches a strike against Lithuania under the pretext of responding to a humanitarian crisis in the Kaliningrad region.
The detailed plan of the exercise envisaged a Russian attack on the Lithuanian city of Marijampolė, located in the so-called Suwałki Gap area and of significant importance not only geopolitically but also logistically, as it services transport, among others, from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region.
Among the assumptions of the simulation was that, because Russia used the argument of a humanitarian crisis, the United States refused to invoke NATO Article 5. The German brigade stationed in Lithuania also did not take action. Poland carried out a mobilization but did not send troops to Lithuania. Ultimately, it turned out that using only about 15,000 soldiers, the Russians were able within a few days to achieve dominance over the Baltic states.
