Blue tsunami hits the US. Is the era of MAGA over?

The American midterm elections brought the expected “blue tsunami”—the victory of the Democratic Party. At the time of writing this article, the exact results of the midterms were not yet fully known, but it was already established that the Republicans had lost their majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

A major victory for the Democrats

The Democratic victory is significant for several reasons. They managed to win in places that were previously considered bastions of the Republican Party. This refers not only to Kansas, Ohio, or South Carolina but, above all, to Texas, where the Democrats last won in… 1988. Another conclusion drawn from the November elections is that they represent a heavy blow to President Donald Trump. While midterm elections usually result in the president’s party losing seats in Congress, the scale of this defeat testifies to the exceptional unpopularity of the current occupant of the White House.

This unpopularity had been evident for some time. Trump’s approval ratings reached record lows, sometimes not even exceeding 30 percentage points. There were (and are) at least several reasons for this state of affairs. Primarily, it concerns the rising cost of living, which is very closely correlated with high fuel prices. These, in turn, cannot be disconnected from the prolonged war in Iran. The Republicans pushed this topic to the sidelines of the campaign, as we wrote in our analysis. However, problems cannot be escaped, as the election results themselves clearly demonstrate. The prolonged operation, probable further strikes on Tehran, the rising costs of the war (now over $47 billion), and delays in ammunition deliveries due to its consumption in Iran mean that the political consequences of this conflict may continue to hit the Republicans in the coming months.

Significant change in Congress: Will impeachment return?

The question arises as to how the change in the balance of power in Congress will affect United States policy. We know that seizing control of the Senate will allow the Democrats to block key presidential nominations for federal or judicial positions. We will frequently witness so-called political “gridlock”, meaning a lack of profound reforms and the necessity for more frequent negotiations between the White House and Congress. The changes on Capitol Hill will also directly affect the President himself—mainly through impeachment, which the House of Representatives will now find much easier to pursue. Although 67 votes in the Senate will be required to remove Donald Trump from office—which seems difficult to achieve—the temptation to initiate the procedure will undoubtedly increase.

Donald Trump is the only American president to have undergone the impeachment procedure twice. In both cases, the Senate acquitted him. Given the likely tremors within the MAGA movement and the Republican Party itself, it is possible that the phrase “third time lucky” may have an exceptionally high chance of being realised this time.

How will US foreign policy change?

Finally, the most important question from our perspective—how will the changes in Congress affect the foreign policy pursued by the United States? The Democratic victory will certainly bring some changes, although it is difficult to predict any major revolution. Ukraine serves as an example here, where the changes on Capitol Hill do not necessarily mean a significant increase in the chances of substantial growth in American aid. Topics more frequently cited in the campaign before the midterms were tariffs and the war in Iran. Democratic Party politicians announced attempts to limit funding for the conflict in the Middle East, as well as stricter control over customs policy. There is a high probability that the changes in Congress will also affect US policy towards Israel. Trump’s recent decision to end the $4 billion annual aid package clearly sets a bipartisan direction.

In all of this, one cannot forget the NDAA (National Defence Authorization Act), the annual defence authorisation bill passed by Congress. In July, the House of Representatives narrowly passed a bill approving a record Pentagon budget of $1.15 trillion. Currently, work is at an impasse, and the growing influence of the Democrats on Capitol Hill will undoubtedly weigh on its final shape.

Trump’s test

The Democratic Party’s victory in the midterm elections is significant, though not record-breaking—in the history of American parliamentarianism, there have been far more severe defeats for the presidential camp. However, the key question remains: to what extent will this result bring a sense of reason back to the Republican Party itself? Since Trump appealed to Americans to think of supporting him when voting for individual candidates, the voters responded by making it clear that his second term—to put it mildly—has not been to their liking. Does this mean the twilight of the MAGA movement and a return of the Republicans to their traditional roots? The coming weeks and months will show what course the GOP will take. In fact, another election machine is already starting up ahead of the presidential race, the finale of which will take place at the end of 2028.