Poland and three NATO allies join forces. Can Europe rearm by 2030?

On 28 October, the four countries announced the start of treaty negotiations concerning the Multilateral Defence Mechanism (MDM). The initiative aims to consolidate defence orders, facilitate joint procurement and provide greater certainty for the defence industry. However, the treaty has not yet been signed, and the overall financial scale of the mechanism remains undecided. 

The MDM is intended to operate as an international financial institution capable of providing loans to participating countries, financing shared ammunition stockpiles and supporting defence manufacturers and their supply chains. The United Kingdom has already earmarked £400 million for its participation. The mechanism could also raise additional capital from financial markets, potentially allowing much larger defence investments. 

The most important challenge, however, concerns time and Europe’s industrial capacity. Individual European countries will not be able to manufacture many of the weapons systems and components they require by 2030 independently and at the necessary scale, particularly if they continue placing separate orders with different technical requirements and delivery schedules. Joint procurement and production should have been developed much earlier. Europe’s rearmament requires not only additional funding, but also more factories, greater production capacity and reliable access to critical components. 

For Poland, cooperation with the United Kingdom is particularly important. On 27 October, Warsaw and London signed a new three-year defence cooperation plan covering air defence missiles, drone and counter-drone technologies, and industrial cooperation on large-calibre ammunition. The MDM could eventually help finance similar projects, although no specific procurement programmes have yet been approved under the new mechanism. 

Other defence financing initiatives are also emerging, including the EU’s €150 billion SAFE programme and the proposed Defence, Security and Resilience Bank led by Canada. Europe’s greatest difficulty may not be finding additional billions, but translating investment into weapons that can actually be delivered before 2030. We are still looking for common production rather than continuing to finance „new solutions” without tangible weapons.