- WIADOMOŚCI
A drop of 300-400 thousand barrels per day. How are Ukrainian attacks damaging Russian oil exports?
As a result of Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries, Russia has been forced to reduce its oil production — marking the largest decline in six years.
Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil, and its economy is heavily driven by this resource. Revenues from oil exports account for approximately 25 percent of the Russian budget. In April, following a series of massive Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports and refineries, oil production dropped by 300,000–400,000 barrels per day compared to the levels recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
According to Russian media, 11,211 Ukrainian drones were shot down in March — nearly twice as many as in February. This surge is linked to the increased frequency of attacks on Russia’s oil export ports. The ports in Leningrad Oblast, the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea, and the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea have all been affected.
Another reason for the decline in exports is the damage to the Druzhba pipeline, which transported crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate that by the end of the year, Russia will be supplying 120,000 fewer barrels of oil per day than it does currently, taking into account the damage to port and energy infrastructure.
The drop in production is being partially offset by the energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov expects that elevated global fuel prices will help reduce the budget deficit. Therefore, it would be in Russia’s interest to sustain the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the oil market caused by reduced capacity in the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, a lasting agreement between the United States and Iran would work to Moscow’s disadvantage.
