China’s quiet pressure on Europe

A new analysis published by the European Council on Foreign Relations warns that Beijing no longer needs to openly pressure European states to shape political decisions in its favor. According to the report, China increasingly relies on indirect economic leverage and the fear of retaliation to discourage European governments from introducing tougher trade restrictions or industrial protections.

The discussion around Chinese influence remains relatively limited in Central and Eastern Europe compared to other parts of the continent. In countries such as Poland, the Baltic states or Romania, public debate continues to focus primarily on the direct military threat posed by Russia and the war in Ukraine. Chinese activities are still often treated as a secondary issue.

This stands in sharp contrast to the approach increasingly visible in Nordic countries, particularly Sweden, where concerns over Chinese influence, technology penetration and economic dependency have become much more pronounced in recent years. Similar discussions are also intensifying in France and Germany, where policymakers are becoming more aware of Beijing’s ability to influence European industrial policy through economic pressure and supply chain dependencies.

The ECFR report argues that China’s strategy is no longer based purely on direct coercion, but on creating a „chilling effect” inside Europe itself. European governments and companies increasingly avoid tougher measures against Beijing out of fear of economic retaliation, trade disruption or losing access to the Chinese market.

Particular concerns relate to Chinese dominance in strategic sectors such as batteries, industrial robotics, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and rare earth supply chains. According to the report, Beijing is building legal and economic mechanisms capable of influencing foreign companies operating even outside China if they remain connected to Chinese supply chains.

This issue is likely to grow significantly in the coming months and years. As Europe searches for new economic partners and attempts to strengthen competitiveness, China will almost certainly try to deepen its influence across the continent — particularly through trade, industrial cooperation and technological dependence.

At the same time, the United States is expected to intensify efforts aimed at preventing Europe from moving closer to Beijing strategically or economically. Washington increasingly views Chinese influence in Europe not only as an economic challenge, but also as a geopolitical and security issue directly connected to the future balance of power inside the Western alliance system.

For Central and Eastern Europe, this creates a new dilemma. While Russia remains the immediate military threat, China may gradually become one of the most important long-term strategic challenges shaping Europe’s political and economic future.