Accelerationism: Washington’s new Cuba doctrine

According to Axios, “The Trump administration is bracing for the potential collapse of Cuba’s totalitarian government as early as this summer.” The U.S. is supposedly preparing military response plans in case they are needed to establish peace on the island. However, the States’ decisions regarding Cuba are spread over time.

President Trump did not authorise an invasion of the island. His administration seems to push economic sanctions in order to slowly weaken the regime in Havana. “The best way to describe it is ‘accelerationism,’” said one of the senior administration officials. “We don’t want to kill off the regime just yet. There’s a method to this. It’s in stages.

The U.S.’s relative prudence toward Cuba is connected to the current situation in the Middle East. Sanctions are supposed to buy time for Trump, for whom the main concern right now is ending the war with Iran. “Iran’s not finished, and the president is not in a rush,” another senior official said. “Trump wants to exhaust all the levers that he can. But at this point, there aren’t as many levers as before.”

A major blow to the Cuban regime was dealt at the beginning of 2026, when the U.S. raided Venezuela and kidnapped its leader, Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela was supplying Cuba with oil shipments that powered the country and gave it a source of export revenue. Once Maduro was abducted, the shipments stopped, resulting in an economic crisis.

On May 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing “secondary sanctions” which targeted companies doing business with the Cuban military-industrial umbrella organisation known as GAESA. Several firms originating from Canada, Spain, Panama and Mexico either pulled out of Cuba or are expected to. These actions are very different from the U.S. embargo which prohibits trade with the island and has existed in one form or another pretty much since 1962. “We’ve never seen this kind of pressure,” said Max Heizlish, an ex-Treasury official who specialised in Cuba sanctions.

The economic situation in Cuba has been declining in the last few months. The main reason for this is considered to be the change of regime in Venezuela and the suspension of oil supplies from that country. Cubans are experiencing regular power outages. The statistical office in Havana reported that in the first four months of 2026, a record low number of tourists arrived in Cuba, almost 56 percent fewer compared to the same period last year. It is an important factor because tourism remains one of Cuba’s main sources of income.