Geostrategic determinants of the security of Poland and Ukraine

The annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, the destabilisation of eastern Ukraine, the militarisation of the Kaliningrad Oblast and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 became unprecedented security challenges for Europe, and particularly for its Central and Eastern part. The security of the region reached its lowest level since the Cold War, especially in countries directly bordering Russia. Internal and external threats, such as disinformation, cyberattacks, economic blockades, unannounced military manoeuvres or cultural and religious tensions, further intensify the security crisis (Rogozińska 2021, 61). Problems related to mass migration and border incidents point to the increasingly complex nature of contemporary threats.

The mutual interactions between military and non-military threats indicate the integration of instruments of action, characteristic of the hybrid warfare strategy conducted by Russia (Banasik 2018, 10). Security development forecasts suggest a further deterioration of the situation in the region due to the long-term and unpredictable nature of threats. The dominant destabilising factor remains the imperial policy of the Russian Federation, aimed at revising the international order shaped after the end of the Cold War and rebuilding its sphere of influence.

Divergences in the perception of threats and difficulties in interpreting actions below the threshold of open armed conflict cause growing tensions around collective defence mechanisms. The Russian Federation, escalating its dominance in the international strategic environment, seeks to obstruct the activity of international organisations such as NATO and the EU and to strengthen its influence in the former Soviet republics. The war in Ukraine revealed difficulties in the rapid and adequate response of international organisations, which forced the states of the region to revise their defence policies. Many of them accelerated the modernisation of their armed forces, increased defence spending, purchased modern weapons systems, including missile defence, and even declared readiness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on their territories.

The Kremlin’s expansive goals constitute a serious threat to the stability of the Central and Eastern European region, in particular to the states of the former USSR. Ukraine and Poland are regarded by Russian elites as a strategic foreland, crucial for the implementation of imperial policy. In the face of this situation, the states of the region must redefine their approach to security, focusing on regional cooperation and effective defence mechanisms. However, efforts to create a common area of stability, democracy and the rule of law in Central and Eastern Europe are met with firm opposition from Russia. The Kremlin conducts an offensive policy towards the West, seeking to gain a strategic advantage in the Euro-Atlantic political space. At the same time, these actions stabilise Putin’s regime domestically by strengthening nationalist sentiments.

Fears of the reconstruction of the Russian sphere of influence prompted the states of Central and Eastern Europe to intensify regional cooperation and create structures protecting against aggression from the Kremlin. Following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in 2022, the perception of threats changed, both globally and regionally. These actions encouraged the states of the region to participate more actively in international organisations such as NATO and the EU and to engage in coalitions that enable the implementation of common goals.

Russia seeks to create a buffer zone in the post-Soviet area, separating the states of the region from NATO structures. Such actions are intended to strengthen the Kremlin’s influence and limit the West’s ability to respond to Russia’s aggressive steps. In response, the states of Central and Eastern Europe are intensifying actions aimed at ensuring stability, strengthening cooperation and developing deterrence mechanisms, which are of key importance for the security of the region.

Poland between the Heartland and the Rimland

Poland is located in a strategic geographical position, being part of the so-called crush zone, that is, the area between Germany and Russia (Lach 2020, 131). Although in the twentieth century this location was often the cause of numerous conflicts, the changing global situation is beginning to alter the way this position is perceived. Poland is becoming a geopolitical “pivot”, where two spheres of influence meet — land and maritime. Understanding this location requires an analysis of two main geopolitical theories that shaped thinking about the dominant powers of the twentieth century. One of them is the Heartland concept by Halford John Mackinder. In his view, strategic advantage is achieved by the state that takes control of the central area of Eurasia, known as the Heartland. Although this area is economically poor, its importance results from the fact that it constitutes the heart of the land part of the world, controlling communication and trade routes, which ensures dominance over the rest of the land world.

Mackinder, in his classic work “The Geographical Pivot of History”, argued that control over Eurasia gives a state the ability to influence other areas, and therefore to dominate global rivalry (Mackinder 1904, 421-437). His theory was based on the conviction that if one state managed to control the Heartland, it would gain access to unlimited natural resources and gain an advantage in competition with other powers. However, from the perspective of contemporary geopolitics, where the dynamics of technological development are changing the face of conflicts, Mackinder’s classical theory takes on new significance. The importance of this area does not lie solely in land dominance, but in understanding the mechanisms that enable global integration and interdependence. Such changes in the perception of the role of the Heartland are visible especially in analyses of the influence of maritime and land powers, which compete for geostrategic space in the face of new challenges (Spyra 2016, 223-236).

In turn, Nicholas Spykman, who developed and modified Mackinder’s concept, presented the theory of the Rimland, in which he draws attention to the importance of coastal and maritime zones, particularly those that control important sea routes. In his concept, maritime powers gain dominance through control over these routes, which provides them with access to global trade and influence on world politics. According to Spykman, the Rimland is a region that includes all states bordering the world’s main oceans, as well as those that control strategic waterways. Spykman believed that control over the Rimland provides the ability to block any land dominance in Eurasia. Because the Rimland is also a place of the greatest political tensions, its analysis allows for a better understanding of contemporary geopolitical conflicts, including the rivalry for influence in regions such as the South China Sea or the Middle East (Eberhardt 2014, 261-280).

In the context of Poland, its location within these theories — both the Heartland and the Rimland — places it in a special position in global geopolitics. Situated at the junction of Central and Eastern Europe, between land and maritime powers, Poland has a key role to play in shaping the politics of the region. This location has repeatedly caused conflicts, but it has also constituted the country’s strategic strength.

Ukraine's geopolitical role and strategic importance for Poland

Ukraine, as Poland’s neighbour, is also a state located in the geopolitical crush zone between Russia and the West. Ukraine’s position on the border of land and maritime influences means that the country is at the centre of the rivalry for control over Eastern Europe. Since Ukraine is located in an area that is not only strategic, but also has enormous economic potential, it is becoming one of the most important elements of contemporary geopolitics. The Ukrainian conflict, which began in 2014, revealed problems related to the political and economic instability of the region, as well as the growing threat from Russia. The war in Ukraine became a new phase in the geopolitical rivalry between the West and the East, where the interests of great powers began to extend beyond the borders of the region.

Ukraine is of key importance in the security policy of the Russian Federation. In the environment of Russian elites and society, Ukraine’s location has a strategic character; historical experiences, cultural and civilisational ties and the commonly professed Orthodox faith play a major role. Ukraine was part of the Russian and Soviet empires. According to Moscow, Russians and Ukrainians are one Slavic nation. In the Kremlin’s view, Ukraine is part of Russia, and it gained independence as a result of a historical accident.

One of the fundamental problems in bilateral Ukraine–Russia relations was the separatism of areas inhabited by Russian-speaking populations. This particularly concerned Crimea, Donbas and former Little Russia, whose contemporary administrative and political centre is Odessa. A constant demand of representatives of these areas was for Ukraine to recognise the status of autonomous republics. The status of Crimea was particularly sensitive, as a powerful Soviet naval base was located in Sevastopol.

The seriousness of the military threat to Ukraine was demonstrated by Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine. After the failure to implement the concept of “Novorossiya” in the southern and eastern areas of Ukraine, the Russian Federation consolidated the conflict in Donbas in order to destabilise Ukraine and undermine the government in Kyiv, which was intended to reduce Ukraine’s chances of European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Paradoxically, Russia’s aggressive actions were the reason for an unprecedented increase in support for membership of the European Union and NATO in Ukraine at that time.

Ukraine’s fundamental objective in the new geopolitical order is to develop a policy that will allow it not only to overcome internal problems but also to strengthen its position in the international arena. Ukraine faces the challenge of building a new national identity based on the idea of democracy and integration with the West. For this reason, an important step in Ukraine’s geopolitics will be cooperation with the countries of the region, as well as with the European Union, which may help achieve political and economic stability. Ukraine’s development is linked to the need to modernise state institutions, improve citizens’ quality of life, and stabilise the political situation.

In the case of Ukraine, one of the main objectives is integration with international organisations and the strengthening of ties with neighbouring countries, which contributes to the stabilisation of the region. Ukraine, like other countries in the region, needs international support, particularly in the context of infrastructure development, access to global markets and integration with the political system of the European Union.

Contemporary geopolitics, as well as processes of regional integration, may become the foundation of future changes in Ukraine. The process of political and economic transformation of this country requires not only international support, but also a strong internal foundation based on political stability and sustainable development. Ukraine, like other states in the region, must cooperate with the European Union in various areas — energy, transport, ecology and security. The key objective is to stabilise the internal and external situation, which will allow Ukraine’s role in the region to be strengthened (Piechowska 2023, 24-27).

The Black Sea region, in which Ukraine plays a key role, is of enormous geopolitical importance. Occupying a place on the border between Europe, Asia, Russia and the Middle East, this region is an extremely important point connecting different cultures and civilisations. Ukraine, as a state in this region, has the ability to influence not only the political and economic situation in this part of the world, but also the development of international cooperation in the fields of infrastructure, trade and security. The Black Sea region, although it faces numerous challenges, has enormous potential for further development.

For Poland, the key conclusion is the need to actively monitor these changes and adapt national economic and strategic policy in order to make maximum use of the opportunities arising from global trends, such as the development of trade routes and new alliances. It is particularly important to strengthen the domestic transport and logistics sector, which may become an important element of global supply chains.

In conclusion, it should be stated that the geopolitical analysis of Poland and Ukraine shows their key role in the region of Central and Eastern Europe. The geographical location of both states makes them important players in the rivalry for influence between East and West. Poland, thanks to its membership of the European Union and NATO, plays a stabilising role in the region, while also engaging in building stronger international relations. Ukraine, despite difficulties related to the conflict with Russia, has a chance for development if it succeeds in carrying out the necessary reforms and integrating with the West. In addition to its stabilising role, Poland also serves as a strategic buffer between Russia and the rest of Europe.