How will the midterms affect US foreign policy? „Strategic goals will remain unchanged”

The Democratic Party’s victory in the US midterm elections certainly weakens President Donald Trump’s political position. Will significant changes in Congress influence the White House’s foreign policy?

What do the Democrats gain?

To answer this question, let us start with what the Democrats will gain through their victory. “From January 2027, the Democrats will gain the ability to conduct congressional investigations, block presidential nominations in the Senate, and exert greater control over federal spending. Budget negotiations will be particularly significant. The current continuing resolution is in effect until 11 December, and the Democrats may seek to push negotiations for a full budget to next year, when their negotiating position will be much stronger. This would allow them to exert pressure on the administration regarding, among other things, the funding of military operations and foreign aid,” said PISM analyst Paul Balawajder. He emphasised that winning a majority in Congress does not equate to the ability to impose a new foreign policy line on the President. The President will not lose his prerogatives, including the veto, which the Democrats will face serious challenges in overriding (requiring a two-thirds majority in both houses).

Will Ukraine benefit?

According to Balawajder, the change occurring today may affect United States policy towards Ukraine. “The Democrats advocate for more decisive military support for Ukraine and maintaining sanctions pressure on Russia. Control over Congress increases the chances of resuming direct aid and will make it harder for the administration to ease sanctions against Russia,” he noted, adding that a possible shift in relation to Kyiv will not mean a fundamental change in the strategic priorities of the United States.

“The gradual reduction of American engagement in Europe and shifting focus to the rivalry with China are processes that transcend the current partisan divide,” emphasised the expert, who believes that any pressure from the Democrats will not necessarily influence Trump himself, as he will still seek to exert diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to end the war as quickly as possible (not necessarily on terms favourable to it or the rest of the European states).

War with Iran

The Democratic victory will not end the war with Iran immediately; however, its continuation will be significantly more complicated for the White House than before. As Paul Balawajder points out, the winning party’s main objective will be to block additional funding for military activities and increase congressional oversight of the administration’s decisions. “This does not, however, mean the possibility of an immediate end to the war, as President Trump still has existing funds and broad powers to conduct military operations at his disposal,” he said.

The policy paradox

Finally, the question arises whether Donald Trump will limit his international political activity in light of this situation. It turns out that this is not necessarily the case. “Paradoxically, the restriction of the ability to implement a domestic programme may simultaneously prompt Trump to engage in more intensive foreign policy activity, where he will retain much greater freedom of action. Ultimately, the new congressional majority will thus be more effective in limiting the administration’s most controversial decisions than in forcing a fundamental shift in its policy,” Paul Balawajder concluded.