War in Iran to the detriment of Ukraine

“Since President Trump’s ongoing operation against Iran is a top priority for the Pentagon and White House planners, European officials fear he may lose interest in ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, now entering its fifth year,” Politico reports. “The practical consequences of the United States becoming entangled in a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could be even more serious than the political ones: Ukraine may be deprived of the American weapons it needs to resist Russia’s daily missile attacks,” the outlet adds.

Not all officials in Washington supported a military intervention in Iran. There were concerns that the conflict could significantly deplete US weapons stockpiles. The United States has reportedly already expended many resources, including interceptor missiles. American PAC-3 interceptors for the Patriot air defense systems are crucial for Ukraine’s defense. European countries have already provided Ukraine with what they could and are now focusing on rebuilding their own capabilities. A well-armed Europe would be able to assist Ukraine only after several years; for now, it is primarily interested in a swift end to the war.

On the American side, there are growing signs of fatigue with the conflict in Ukraine. Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that “President Donald Trump has put a great deal of effort into the peace process and does not understand why Kyiv and Moscow cannot bring the ongoing war to an end.” The conflict in the Middle East further diverts American attention away from Ukraine and shifts the entire burden of supporting Ukraine onto Europe. Europe’s resources, however, are more limited, especially given the need for nations to rearm independently. The peace negotiations in the Ukraine–US–Russia format are at risk of reaching an impasse. The next round was planned for between March 5 and 8, potentially in Abu Dhabi. The venue will likely have to be changed due to the ongoing conflict. Moreover, the US side has not yet commented on the timing of the next meeting in this format. Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides have expressed their willingness to participate in the negotiations.