East Front News #10: Polish-Lithuanian Cooperation Forum, Polish Defence Goes Big at MSPO, Why Ukraine Lost a F-16?

Strengthening the Lithuanian-Polish Partnership

On September 5, the Polish-Lithuanian Defence Industry Forum was held in Warsaw, aiming to strengthen cooperation between Lithuania and Poland in the defence sector. The event was endorsed by Presidents Andrzej Duda and Gitanas Nausėda and attended by state officials and industry representatives, including the Polish Armaments Group and Innovation Agency Lithuania. The forum focused on enhancing regional stability by addressing key issues such as increasing production capacity, developing new defence technologies, achieving long-term strategic goals, and identifying current threats. Poland is consolidating its position as a key player in Central and Eastern Europe, with an expanded presence in Lithuania that enables Warsaw to develop its capabilities and boost its economic and military potential. Additionally, Polish companies have the opportunity to secure new contracts and enhance cooperation in the Lithuanian market. Defence24 was the main partner of the event, and CyberDefence24 signed a bilateral cooperation agreement on cybersecurity with Lithuania’s Infobalt.

Polish drones for Korea and long-range systems developed

During the MSPO 2024 defence sector trade fairs, Polish company WB Group has revealed Warmate 50, a UAV that can hit target over a distance of 1000 km. This is a development of Warmate family which is now being used by the Polish Armed Forces, Ukraine and other international users. Also during the MSPO 2024, during a debate named „Polish-Korean Defence Industry Cooperation – Opportunities and Challenges” it was revealed that Korea is likely to purchase a batch of Warmate UAVs, to be delivered this year. During the debate, joint production of K2 MBT and financing of the purchases made by Poland in Korea was also discussed.

At MSPO, deals and calls for increased defence spending

The inauguration of MSPO trade fairs was a high-visibility event, with the participation of Polish President Andrzej Duda, Speaker of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia, who visited MSPO opening for the first time, and Minister of Defence & Deputy PM Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. Polish President reiterated his proposal that NATO countries should commit to spending at least 3 per cent of GDP on defence, as in the Cold War era. »Raising the level of defence spending and making the armies of NATO countries really strong, which cannot be defeated, especially when they stand together to defend every bit of the alliance’s territory, will ensure that there will not be another world war,« - the president said.

At the same time, the MoD Head announced contracts „for the completion of the Narew and Wisła systems” (Link 16 terminals, approx. 31 for less than $17 million, delivery until 2027), radar systems for airfield control (made by Indra, 8 systems + 7 as an option), as well as contracts for Rosomak SA (348 contamination detection systems for PLN 316 million), Jelcz SA (cranes – maximum 90 for PLN 384 million or approx. USD 100 million) or WB Electronics (six FlyEye UAV systems, 24 PLN million). Kosiniak-Kamysz also stressed the need to cooperate with state and private companies.

No Violation of Polish Airspace by a Russian Drone?

Operational Commander of the Armed Forces, Major General Maciej Klisz held a press briefing to inform the media that the Russian drone had not, most probably, violated Polish airspace. A ground search covered an area of 250 square kilometers, yielding negative results. General Klisz also stated that a much larger area was searched from the air, using various types of aircraft—both manned and unmanned. Data from various satellite sources and radar systems were analyzed, along with documents from allied sources. So far, the findings indicate that it is highly probable that no airspace violation occurred on August 26. Here, it is worth adding a small comment. An important clue is that the potential threat was identified not as a plane or cruise missile but as a drone. Due to their small radar cross-section and slow speed, these types of targets are much harder to detect using traditional radars employed in air defense systems (on the other hand, faster objects, such as those with jet engines, are easier to detect using radars).

Visit of Minister Radosław Sikorski to Southeast Asian Countries

From September 2nd to 5th, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski visited three Southeast Asian countries: Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Sikorski was accompanied by deputy ministers of agriculture, national defence, and digital affairs, as well as a business delegation. During the visit, the head of Polish diplomacy met with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s Ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs, Mohamed Khaled Nordin, and Singapore’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vivian Balakrishnan. The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the discussions covered the war in Ukraine, regional security in the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific, as well as the increasing trends of neo-colonialism in international politics. The Polish side emphasized its interest in strengthening cooperation in the field of defence systems with the respective countries. It also expressed a desire to join the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Minister Sikorski’s Asian tour aimed to develop bilateral and multilateral relations ahead of Poland’s presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2025. Future visits by Polish representatives from the defence industry to the region are expected to maintain military contacts. In recent years, Polish-made Sokół helicopters and American Black Hawks produced in Poland have been delivered to Asia.

Resignation of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba

On September 4, 2024, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba submitted his resignation as part of a broader plan to reorganize the Ukrainian government. His departure was not unexpected, as rumors of his resignation had been circulating since June of this year. The change in leadership at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is aimed at bringing a new dynamic to Ukraine’s foreign policy, as Kuleba, who had held the position since 2020, was seen as lacking in impact. The experienced diplomat Andrii Sybiha, who speaks fluent Polish and has served as the first deputy foreign minister for the past six months, will become the new foreign minister. Sybiha previously worked in Poland from 1998 to 2002 as the first secretary of the Ukrainian embassy. There are reports suggesting that Kuleba’s dismissal may have been prompted by his comments at the „Campus Polska” event regarding the exhumation of the bodies of genocide victims in Volhynia and the „Operation Vistula.” Despite Kuleba’s departure and the appointment of Sybiha, who „understands Poland,” Ukraine’s foreign policy trajectory in relations with Poland is unlikely to change significantly, as Kyiv continues to assertively pursue its own interests. However, Sybiha’s familiarity with Polish political realities may help avoid diplomatic and image-related missteps like Kuleba’s recent remarks. At the same time, it could be a double-edged sword, as Ukraine might seek to leverage Polish sentiments and attachment to symbolism in its international relations.

New Hypothesis on a Ukraine F-16 Shoot Down

The initial information regarding the loss of the F-16 by Kyiv on 26 August suggested either a friendly fire incident involving a Patriot missile or an accident. However, the cause of the incident may be related to both the training methodology adopted for the Ukrainian pilots, and deficiencies in weapons and support, including some negligence on the USAF part. According to Jakub Palowski, Defence24.pl Deputy Editor in Chief, the pilot could have attempted to shoot down a Shahed drone with guns after having run out of missiles, and crashed during the attempt. If this was the scenario of the crash, then it could have been prevented by providing Ukrainian Air Force with inexpensive capability of using APKWS guided rockets against Russian targets along with targeting pods.

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East Front News is a weekly newsletter and article on Defence24.com summarizing the past week’s most important events concerning security and the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region. It includes original opinions and comments, along with key news items significant from a Polish perspective.

Jakub Palowski, Deputy Ed. in Chief & Aleksander Olech, PhD