- WIADOMOŚCI
European military independent from the United States?
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) has published a report indicating that Europe could achieve military independence from the United States in most areas by the mid-2030s. The process would cost approximately 500 billion euros.
If Europe is to be treated as a single political entity, its defence spending ranks second in the world. The authors of the report noted, however, that the region remains dependent on the United States in key areas of military operations. The current increase in expenditures has not yet translated into greater capabilities or operational autonomy.
If defence spending levels are maintained, significant progress toward operational independence can be expected within three to five years. Autonomy in most areas could be achieved within five to ten years. The cost of implementing key programs may reach 150–200 billion euros by 2030, and around 500 billion euros total by the middle of the next decade. All of this, of course, assumes sufficient political will among the region’s states.
The authors of the report point out that “the bottleneck is neither money nor technology. It is the political will to act in a European way—to make decisions and then implement them as quickly and pragmatically as possible. Ukraine shows us that this does not take decades.”
The implementation of this initiative should take place within a coalition of leading states. There is no need to create a new European structure. Germany, France, Poland, and the United Kingdom would coordinate major strategic programs, the scope of conventional forces, and dialogue on nuclear policy. The countries of Northern Europe, the Baltic states, and the Netherlands would be responsible for maritime autonomy, the protection of the Baltic and North Seas, and electronic warfare.
The report also highlights the direction of European defence spending. Europe concentrates 70 percent of its expenditures in the ten largest defence companies, while in the United States this share is below 30 percent. European armies also use a more diverse range of weaponry: 14 types of tanks, 15 types of fighter jets, and various command systems. This limits economies of scale. The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) suggests that, as a result, Europe gains 30–40 percent less capability from each euro invested compared to a country with a consolidated defence system.
