The highest defence budget since the fall of the USSR. How much Russia will spend in 2027?

Democratic states differ from non-democratic ones in many ways. One of these is the openness and transparency of the state budget. Russia, despite the appearance of democracy, is not among the countries that openly publish information regarding the federal budget for individual years, nor reports on its implementation.

By the end of September, the Russian parliament receives the draft federal budget for the following year. It is passed at the end of the year and published. A characteristic feature of this publication is its large volume (e.g., for 2026 it spans 5,381 pages) and, above all, the classification of many items and tables. On average, about 25% of Russian federal budget expenditure is not subject to publication due to being classified as secret or top secret.

The same applies to the budget execution report passed by parliament. It is also immense (3,464 pages for 2024, while the 2025 report has not yet been published) and likewise, about 25% of expenditure is contained within secret and top secret tables.

Classified spending and lack of transparency in the Russian defence budget

For example, in 2024, the Russian federal budget spent 40.2 trillion roubles, of which only 30.2 trillion roubles were disclosed. This means that classified spending amounted to 10 trillion roubles. Classified spending includes not only the Ministry of Defence but also other security ministries, economic departments, and federal organisations. To further ensure that no conclusions can be drawn from this publication, some of the spending of the aforementioned departments is public. Thus, in 2024, the public expenditure of the Russian Ministry of Defence amounted to 5.6 trillion roubles. In summary, in 2024, this ministry spent 5.6 trillion roubles publicly and a large portion of the classified 10 trillion roubles. Exactly how much, however, remains unknown.

The published federal budget for 2026, in its public section, assumed Ministry of Defence expenditure of 4.3 trillion roubles, alongside another massive portion of the budget’s classified spending, amounting to approximately 12 trillion roubles. Every Russian budget contains the figure for the year in which it is passed, as well as plans for the following two years. However, recent years have shown that Russian planning differs significantly from subsequent implementation.

By how much will Russian defence spending increase according to Reuters reports?

Reuters has obtained very interesting information. According to its findings, the Russian defence budget for 2026 was passed at 12.1 trillion roubles (approx. £110 billion / $143 billion), and the 2027 budget currently under consideration assumes expenditure of 17.1 trillion roubles (approx. £156 billion / $202.6 billion). This represents an increase of approximately 41% between the budget laws. Due to the aforementioned lack of transparency in Russian spending, it is not known by how much it will increase in real terms.

Reuters also provided another interesting piece of information. In the 2026 budget, defence spending for 2027 was planned at 13.5 trillion roubles. The predicted 2027 budget expenditure of 17.1 trillion roubles is therefore 27% higher than previously planned.

In summary, the year 2027 in the Russian federal budget will be marked by a heavy burden of defence spending. This is not surprising, given the enormous costs of conducting the war against Ukraine while simultaneously maintaining the rest of the Russian military in a state of readiness. This applies to forces not participating in the war, which, from a Russian perspective, remain very significant, such as the Strategic Missile Forces, Space Forces, and parts of the Aerospace Forces providing air defence for other parts of the country, among others.

It is worth noting that Russian defence spending cannot be easily compared with Polish spending. Primarily, Poland is not at war. Additionally, many Russian costs are significantly lower than analogous Polish costs. This particularly applies to services and the production of components in remote regions of Russia. Poland imports a large portion of its military equipment, whereas Russia produces practically everything itself. The cost of a combat aircraft purchased by Poland in the US is significantly higher than the cost of a combat aircraft purchased by Russia from its own industry.

However, it is worth noting the scale of Russia’s record defence spending planned for 2027, amounting to approximately 17.1 trillion roubles, which is about 202.6 billion dollars or approximately 787 billion zloty. Russia has not had such a defence budget since its inception following the collapse of the USSR.