East Front News #88: Belarus–North Korea deal, Baltic Sea threats and CEE security shift

Geopolitical ramifications of Russia’s 2022 aggression against Ukraine: CEE perspective

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has profoundly reshaped the geopolitical landscape of Central and Eastern Europe, exposing the limitations of existing international security frameworks and deepening divisions within Europe. The conflict has accelerated regional cooperation among CEE states, while simultaneously highlighting a widening asymmetry between Western and Eastern parts of the continent. The war is increasingly viewed through the lens of a broader systemic rivalry between blocs, raising concerns about the long-term cohesion of the European Union and its capacity to maintain strategic balance.

The analysis outlines several possible trajectories for the conflict and their implications, ranging from a Ukrainian victory to a negotiated settlement or Russian success. In many scenarios, CEE countries emerge as a frontline „shield” for the West, requiring strengthened deterrence and defence capabilities. The war may also lead to a more fragmented Europe divided into distinct geopolitical zones, while the future of Belarus and potential internal changes in Russia remain critical variables. Overall, the conflict has accelerated the reorganisation of regional security structures and reinforced the need for more robust, coordinated responses to long-term strategic threats.

Author: Agnieszka Rogozińska

Belarus and North Korea are tightening relations

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to North Korea marks a significant step in the deepening relationship between two internationally isolated states. The planned signing of a friendship and cooperation treaty, along with multiple sectoral agreements, reflects a growing effort to expand economic and political ties despite historically minimal trade. Both countries, facing Western sanctions, are increasingly seeking alternative partnerships to mitigate their isolation and sustain economic activity.

The strengthening of relations is also closely linked to their shared alignment with Russia, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. Belarus continues to support Moscow by providing territory, while North Korea supplies military resources, creating a broader network of cooperation among sanctioned states. This emerging alignment highlights a strategic shift driven by geopolitical pressure, where isolation encourages closer coordination between authoritarian regimes and reinforces their collective resistance to Western influence.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Poland’s dominance in the Baltic Sea. Billions invested in new wind power capacity

Poland is rapidly emerging as a key player in Europe’s offshore wind sector, accounting for a significant share of recent investments in new wind energy capacity. According to WindEurope CEO Tinne Van der Straeten, the country is set to build 11 GW of offshore wind farms by 2040, with strong momentum driven by stable regulatory frameworks and successful auctions. This positions Poland as a leader in the Baltic Sea region and a major contributor to Europe’s broader transition towards renewable energy and energy security.

The interview highlights both the opportunities and challenges facing the sector, including the need for improved grid infrastructure, faster permitting processes, and increased electrification to sustain demand. Offshore wind is presented as a strategic asset that can reduce dependence on fossil fuels and strengthen economic resilience, while also fostering industrial development and regional cooperation. Poland’s growing role could make it a driving force behind Baltic energy integration, provided it maintains consistent policy support and continues to scale its investments.

Author: Alicja Jankowska

Is terrorism in retreat?

Recent data suggests a decline in global terrorism, with fewer attacks and casualties recorded compared to previous years. However, this trend does not necessarily indicate a lasting reduction in threat levels. While overall fatalities and incidents have decreased, the number of countries affected by terrorism has risen, and the geographical centre of activity continues to shift, particularly towards regions such as the Sahel. These developments point to an evolving rather than diminishing threat.

At the same time, new dynamics are increasing the complexity of the challenge, including the rapid acceleration of radicalisation processes and a notable rise in attacks in Western countries. The involvement of state actors and proxy organisations, as well as the potential use of emerging technologies, further amplifies the risk of escalation. Taken together, these factors suggest that terrorism is adapting to changing conditions, and the recent decline may represent only a temporary phase rather than a sustained global retreat.

Author: Sebastian Wojciechowski

The Baltic Sea and new strategy

The Baltic Sea has transformed from a stable and predictable maritime space into a strategically contested environment shaped by hybrid threats, infrastructure vulnerability and geopolitical rivalry. Increasing Russian activity, including operations in the grey zone and suspicious movements of vessels near critical infrastructure, has exposed the fragility of undersea cables, energy systems and communication networks. The region’s dense concentration of infrastructure means that even limited incidents can trigger wide-ranging economic and security consequences.

At the same time, the analysis highlights a growing mismatch between shared threats and fragmented responses. Despite a dense network of regional institutions and NATO presence, there is no unified operational framework capable of effectively coordinating defence of critical infrastructure. The Baltic is emerging as a testing ground for new security concepts, from autonomous systems to integrated monitoring, but also underscores Europe’s continued reliance on U.S. capabilities. This has led to increasing calls for a more coherent regional strategy that combines military, economic and technological dimensions into a single security architecture.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Autonomy or alliance? Poland between the United States and Europe

Poland’s security policy is increasingly shaped by the need to balance strong transatlantic ties with the United States and growing ambitions for European strategic autonomy. Extensive defence procurement from the U.S., including advanced systems such as Abrams tanks, Patriot missiles and F-35 aircraft, reflects both the technological advantages offered by American industry and the urgency of strengthening military capabilities on NATO’s eastern flank. At the same time, this cooperation is not purely transactional, as it opens opportunities for deeper industrial integration and joint production involving the Polish defence sector.

The discussion also highlights the broader strategic dilemma facing Europe and the United States, where a lack of coordination risks weakening both sides. Rather than viewing transatlantic cooperation and European autonomy as competing projects, the analysis points to the need for a complementary approach based on partnership and shared interests. Poland is positioned as a potential bridge between these two dimensions, capable of strengthening both European capabilities and U.S. engagement, provided that cooperation evolves towards a more balanced and mutually beneficial model.

Author: Aleksander Olech