Ceasefire in the Middle East but only for some

The American threat to “destroy an entire civilisation” did not materialise. The condition for the ceasefire was the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. The Iranian side is to allow navigation “in coordination with the Armed Forces of Iran.”

The agreement was announced by Donald Trump on the Truth Social platform. The ceasefire is intended to help establish a lasting peace. “Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. (…) Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.”

The Prime Minister of Pakistan stated that the ceasefire in the region is to include all parties. According to his plan, attacks on the Israeli-Lebanese front would be suspended. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that it supports a two-week ceasefire with Iran, but that it does not cover military operations in Lebanon. It should be noted that in his Truth Social post, Donald Trump did not mention Lebanon.

It is quite possible that Iran and the United States will reach an agreement. It is in the American interest to end the war as quickly as possible and declare victory in the conflict. Continuing military operations exposes them to losses, and casualties among American soldiers are not tolerated. Israel may be a factor complicating the peace process. Further fighting on the Israeli-Lebanese front should be expected. Hezbollah is perceived by Israel as an existential threat located on its border. By observing a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Tel Aviv would allow the organisation to rebuild its capabilities—something it cannot afford to do.