Crimea declares an emergency situation. What is happening on the peninsula?

What is happening on the Crimean Peninsula?

On June 21, the separatist authorities on the peninsula suspended the sale of fuel to private individuals, which will be available only to government agencies. A couple of days later, on June 26, the Moscow-installed government declared an emergency situation in the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. According to the local governor, Sergey Aksyonov, the emergency situation would allow for the rapid resolution of tasks related to ensuring the stable functioning of key sectors.

The rationale behind this decision lies in the increasing offensive conducted by Ukraine. The attacks targeted logistics chains, primarily road and rail networks, as well as ports connecting the Crimean Peninsula to the territory of the Russian Federation. Other objectives were oil facilities such as fuel storage facilities and tanker trucks.

There have also been attacks on critical infrastructure, including the power grid, which led to a blackout, for example in Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, and other parts of Crimea.

Besides, in the past few weeks alone, Ukraine has attacked long-range targets such as a gas processing plant in Orenburg, 1,200 km from Ukraine, and the Tyumen refinery in Western Siberia, 2,070 km from Ukraine.

It is worth noting that on the night of 20–21 July, Ukraine carried out simultaneous attacks on two key oil facilities on either side of the Kerch Strait, which separates Crimea from Russia – the oil terminal in Kerch in Crimea and the port of Kavkaz in Russia.

According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia has relocated air defence systems from other regions to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to the Russian mainland. This includes hundreds of S-400, S-500, and Pantsir air defence system launchers deployed in the Moscow region alone.

The consequences of the Ukrainian attacks are very painful

All these strikes against power plants, oil refineries, bridges and crossings are aimed at worsening the daily life of Crimea’s people – to make it almost uninhabitable and completely unsuitable for tourism.

As a result, the situation for the peninsula’s residents has deteriorated significantly. Their daily lives are now filled with waiting in line at gas stations, which have severely limited sales or even stopped them altogether.

The local government was forced to temporarily ban the transport of fuel across the Crimean Bridge in the east of the peninsula due to the fear that a precise Ukrainian strike could cause a major fire and seriously damage the bridge. As a result, land routes became the only supply option, although they remain within the range of Ukrainian medium-range drones on a daily basis.

According to one resident, air raid alerts have become more regular in recent weeks. Additionally, due to the strike on the power plant in Kerch, Sevastopol and other parts of the peninsula, electricity supply restrictions continue as repair work to the power grid has been suspended following air raid alerts prompted by Ukrainian drone activity.

Furthermore, the rationing of certain food products has also been implemented, with some products, such as sugar, reported to be in particularly short supply. Sevastopol also cancelled ferry services, banned outdoor gatherings, and switched off street lighting.

It is also worth noting that Crimea was a very important tourist destination. As a result of the current attacks, the tourism industry has been severely weakened. People are canceling their reservations, which is negatively affecting the incomes of the peninsula’s residents. It has been confirmed that all summer camps for children have been suspended until 1 September.

Difficult times for Russia

It is important to note that fuel shortages are not limited to Crimea but affect all of Russia as well. According to the independent Russian outlet The Bell, as of last week 53 out of 89 regions had introduced some form of restriction regarding fuel consumption.

Even though Russia could earn more revenue from oil sales – thanks to the American-Israeli war with Iran and shortages in supply, Ukraine increased the scale and frequency of the strikes to reduce Moscow’s production capabilities.

Speaking only about attacks on the Crimean Peninsula – this campaign started in 2023 as a retaliation for using this territory to launch air attacks, missiles and drones against Ukraine; however, now the scale of this operation is broader. Importantly, numerous videos circulating online show Crimean residents complaining about the current situation. Certainly, this represents a significant political challenge for Vladimir Putin.

Without a doubt, the current pressure on Crimea is a very important image-building tool for Vladimir Putin, who strengthened his image following the annexation. As for now, Ukraine is using strikes deeper into Russian territory to increase pressure on the Kremlin to engage in peace talks and secure better negotiating position. It seems that currently both sides are competing over which side will be perceived as having the upper hand.

It is unlikely that Russian society will immediately stand against the current regime. Rather, it is about the process of putting as much pressure as possible so that every citizen will feel the real consequences of the war.