Moscow’s setbacks raise threats on NATO’s eastern flank

“The war in Ukraine is not proceeding according to Russia’s plans, […] and today explosions are resounding within Russia itself; there are fuel shortages […]. Russian society is already questioning the Kremlin regime, asking why this is happening and where the promised victory is,” the Prime Minister said in a Monday interview with the public radio station LRT.

In his view, the Russian side needs an escalation of the conflict, where the Baltic states and Poland are the most likely targets. The minister’s statement is not detached from reality. For weeks, there have been reports of a provocation planned by Russia in Poland or the Baltic states. These reports were confirmed by the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda. This information is based on intelligence regarding potential Russian attacks on key regional infrastructure, which could be carried out using both conventional and unconventional means. A false flag operation, in which the Russian side might use Ukrainian citizens or Ukrainian equipment (e.g. drones) to carry out aggressive actions, absolutely cannot be ruled out.

In the radio interview, Kaunas pointed out that Lithuania is responding to potential threats by strengthening the protection of transport and energy infrastructure and utilising its services to analyse intelligence information on an ongoing basis and coordinate actions with allies. He also assured that Lithuania’s actions are not intended to provoke Russia.