The end of the U.S.-Iran agreement?

On the night of July 7–8, US forces conducted strikes against Iran. According to Axios, the targets included air defence systems, coastal monitoring systems, surface-to-air missile (SAM) launchers, anti-ship cruise missile positions, drone launch bases, and port infrastructure facilities. Prior to this, the American side revoked the suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian crude oil. The easing of the sanctions regime had been one of the core elements of the preliminary agreement between Iran and the US.

The US actions were a response to Iranian attacks on at least two tankers: a Qatari vessel transporting LNG and a Saudi vessel carrying oil. These ships were navigating a maritime route near the Omani coast. Iran has repeatedly warned that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be guaranteed for vessels using the route running along the Iranian coast. Ships utilising other routes face the threat of fire from the Iranian side.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on Wednesday morning that it had conducted retaliatory strikes against American actions. Targets included the US 5th Fleet base in Bahrain and an airfield utilised by US forces in Kuwait. An American MQ-9 drone was also shot down. The IRGC claims to have struck 85 “strategic American military facilities.”

We are witnessing the largest escalation since the signing of the preliminary agreement between the parties. The deal stipulates that the United States and Iran are to work out a final agreement within 60 days. Negotiations involving intermediaries are currently suspended due to the ongoing funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war in a joint US-Israeli airstrike.