Will Iran strike Europe if US escalates?

According to the Financial Times, which cited people close to the regime, Iranian forces have assessed potential attacks on American military assets in southeastern Europe. These would include several targets, including Bulgaria, which has recently authorised US refuelling aircraft to operate from the Bezmer air base.

Cyprus has also been mentioned as a relevant target in case Washington escalates the conflict. The island hosts British military facilities, one of which has already been targeted by a drone this year.

There is also a possible danger of Tehran trying to disrupt subsea fibre-optic cables which run through the Strait of Hormuz. If they were damaged, critical communications infrastructure passing through one of the world’s most strategically important waterways could be affected.

According to sources cited by the FT, Iranian attacks outside of the Middle East would commence if one of the two following scenarios occurred:

• US decides to attack Iranian infrastructure.
• Major new US offensive is launched.

While Donald Trump did warn several times about striking Iranian infrastructure, those threats never came to fruition and remained more of a diplomatic tool than anything else. The scenario of launching a major new US offensive is a bit broader, yet still unlikely. We can be quite sure that Washington will not decide to put its boots on Iranian soil due to the high likelihood of American casualties occurring. Air strikes may continue, but they would not meet the definition of a new offensive. And if Iran were to strike targets in Europe, it should expect a reaction.