China's new five-year plan

China remains the world’s largest centrally planned economy. On March 5, the draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030 was released. The plan is set to be approved on March 11 in Beijing during the so-called “Two Sessions” — the concurrent meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

The new economic plan focuses on “new productive forces.” China intends to gradually move away from a model based on cheap labor and real estate investment. The property development sector is being marginalized, with only a brief mention of its “healthy development.” Instead, Beijing plans to concentrate on advanced industries supported by the domestic market. This approach is meant to make China more resilient to potential disruptions in the global economy.

A key element emphasized in the plan is “technological self-sufficiency,” seen as a direct response to US sanctions. The government plans to establish a “new nationwide system” to coordinate research into technologies that would reduce China’s dependence on the West. Particular attention is given to the Artificial Intelligence+ program, which aims to integrate AI into industry, services, and public administration.

The plan also calls for the creation of legal mechanisms to counter sanctions. Ensuring the security of food and energy supply chains has been elevated to a matter of national survival. The document also touches on the military sphere, where China is laying the groundwork to achieve its modernization goals by the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 2027. The plan envisions closer integration between the military and the private sector, as well as the development of intelligent combat capabilities.

The issue of Taiwan remains unchanged — China continues to regard the island as part of its territory. The document reinforces opposition to “external interference” supporting Taiwan’s autonomy.

The plan also addresses the major challenges facing the country. It strongly emphasizes the need to build a “family-friendly society.” Measures include reducing the costs of childrearing and education. Like many Western nations, China is grappling with a demographic crisis. The fertility rate is projected to stand at 1.0 in 2026, far below the replacement level.

It can be concluded that the new plan places a strong emphasis on self-sufficiency. Moreover, many of its provisions are clearly directed against the United States — particularly regarding sanctions and support for Taiwan.