East Front News #69: Finnish shelters; Lithuania closes borders with Belarus

Finnish shelters. A history lesson for modern civil defence

In an era of growing geopolitical tensions, driven among other things by the war in Ukraine and changes in international security policy, the shelter system is becoming one of the key elements of civil defense.

The Finnish shelter system is a unique example on a global scale of long-term civil security policy, deeply rooted in historical experiences and a national culture of resilience. Its origins date back to the dramatic events of the 20th century—the Winter War (1939–1940) and the Continuation War (1941–1944) with the USSR. These conflicts made Finns realize that the survival of the state depends not only on the army but also on the preparation of the civilian population.

Author: Mateusz Gibała

Ankara's energy pivot: diversification, new alliances and implications for NATO

Turkey is recalibrating its energy policy, moving away from dependence on Russian imports and towards diversified cooperation with the United States, South Korea and Gulf partners. Major investments in nuclear energy, LNG terminals and renewables are gradually transforming Ankara into a regional energy hub capable of ensuring greater supply security and strategic resilience. At the same time, projects such as the Akkuyu nuclear plant still underline the complexity of balancing between economic pragmatism and geopolitical alignment within NATO.

This transformation reinforces Turkey’s ambition to operate as a more autonomous regional power, while remaining a key player on the Alliance’s southern flank. A more energy-independent Ankara could strengthen NATO’s collective security posture, but it may also become a more assertive and unpredictable partner, seeking strategic room for manoeuvre between Moscow and Washington.

Author: Dr Aleksander Olech

Lithuania closes border crossings with Belarus and vows to shoot down smuggling balloons

Lithuania has indefinitely closed its main border crossings with Belarus after a wave of smuggling balloons violated national airspace, forcing repeated suspensions of flights at Vilnius and Kaunas airports. The largest incident, involving around 25 balloons overnight, disrupted dozens of flights and affected thousands of passengers. Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė called the incursions a „hybrid attack,” announcing that Lithuanian forces would shoot down any future balloons approaching its airspace.

The move underscores growing regional tension and the hybrid nature of the threats faced by NATO’s eastern flank. By linking border management to national defence, Vilnius signals that even unconventional provocations from Minsk will be treated as part of a broader campaign of pressure. The government is also considering consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, emphasising how hybrid tactics are now directly shaping alliance security dynamics.

Author: Karolina Kisiel

All the president's men – who is shaping Trump's policy towards Russia and Ukraine?

President Donald Trump’s policy towards Russia and Ukraine is defined by competing factions within his administration, each promoting a different vision of U.S. engagement. Business associate Steve Witkoff champions informal diplomacy and personal ties with Moscow, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio advocates a cautious, traditional approach preferred by European allies. Their contrasting strategies — transactional versus institutional — have produced inconsistency in Washington’s handling of the war in Ukraine.

After the failure of the Trump–Putin summit and the cancellation of further talks, Rubio’s influence has grown, restoring a more conventional framework for U.S. policy. Yet Trump’s circle remains divided, with Vice President JD Vance, General Keith Kellogg and Donald Trump Jr. pushing diverse priorities that oscillate between isolationism, pragmatism and deterrence. For now, the „Rubio camp” appears to dominate, but the president’s unpredictable leadership ensures that U.S. policy may still shift abruptly.

Author: Magdalena Górnicka-Partyka

Poland and its allies scramble fighter jets after Russian attacks on Ukraine

On Thursday morning, October 30, 2025, in response to a massive Russian air assault on Ukraine, Poland’s Operational Command of the Armed Forces announced that it had scrambled its standby fighter jets and an early warning aircraft. Air defence and radar units were also placed on the highest level of readiness. The actions were preventive, aimed at securing Polish airspace, particularly in regions bordering Ukraine.

As part of the operation, civilian airports in Lublin and Radom were temporarily closed but reopened after several hours once the situation was deemed stable. The Operational Command stated that Poland’s airspace is under continuous monitoring and that its forces remain fully prepared to respond to any potential threats. The incident underscores how the ongoing war in Ukraine directly affects regional security and highlights the need for sustained vigilance among NATO member states on the Alliance’s eastern flank.

Author: Justyna Smoleń & Amelia Wojciechowska

International defense and security experts will discuss NATO Eastern Flank resilience in Vilnius

On November 17–18, the international conference Defending Baltics 2025 will take place in Vilnius, bringing together high-level decision-makers, security experts, and defense industry representatives to discuss key lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, their implications for the defense of the Baltic region, and practical solutions to strengthen regional security.

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East Front News is a weekly newsletter and article on Defence24.com summarizing the past week’s most important events concerning security and the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region. It includes original opinions and comments, along with key news items significant from a Polish perspective.