East Front News #85: Europe adapts to new defence and deterrence pressures

Belgium's missing F-16s and the limits of fighter jet pledges

Western promises to provide Ukraine with modern fighter aircraft were expected to significantly strengthen Kyiv’s air capabilities and alter the balance in the skies. In practice, however, the process has revealed the persistent gap between political announcements and the complex realities of military logistics. Belgium’s pledge to deliver up to 30 F-16s remains unfulfilled nearly two years later, largely due to the ongoing transition of the Belgian Air Force from ageing F-16s to new F-35 aircraft and the need to maintain NATO obligations and national air defence during this period.

The broader programme of transferring Western fighters has moved forward unevenly across Europe. While countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have delivered dozens of aircraft, operational challenges continue to limit their immediate battlefield impact. Shortages of missiles, the need for extensive pilot training, and the development of maintenance infrastructure all slow the integration process. As a result, despite the strategic value of Western jets, Ukraine’s air war in the near term remains shaped more by air defence systems than by newly delivered fighter fleets.

Aleksander Olech

Polish–Slovak defence cooperation targets export markets

Poland and Slovakia are strengthening defence-industrial cooperation, with new discussions focused on joint arms production and potential exports to markets in the Middle East and Asia. During the Polish-Slovak Defence and Industry Dialogue in Bratislava, defence ministers Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Robert Kaliňák emphasised the strategic nature of bilateral cooperation and explored opportunities to use European financial instruments to support joint defence initiatives.

Among the initiatives discussed was the potential export of Polish military platforms equipped with Slovak technology. The Polish Borsuk infantry fighting vehicle could be offered to Slovakia, while Warsaw and Bratislava are also reportedly considering a joint proposal to sell Rosomak wheeled armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia and Vietnam. Under the concept discussed during the forum, the vehicles would be fitted with the Slovak Turra-30 turret system, illustrating a growing model of regional defence-industrial cooperation aimed at expanding exports beyond Europe.

Author: Michał Górski

France's nuclear umbrella and Europe's evolving deterrence debate

France has signalled a potential evolution in its nuclear doctrine by proposing what President Emmanuel Macron described as „advanced nuclear deterrence” with a European dimension. While the final decision to use nuclear weapons would remain solely with the French president, the initiative envisages greater involvement of allied states through joint exercises and possibly the deployment of elements of France’s strategic air forces on allied territory. The proposal reflects Paris’s growing ambition to position itself as a central actor in European security while maintaining complementarity with NATO’s existing nuclear deterrence provided primarily by the United States.

At the same time, France is pursuing the modernisation and expansion of its nuclear capabilities, arguing that the coming decades may represent a renewed „age of nuclear weapons”. Plans include increasing the number of nuclear warheads and introducing a new generation of ballistic missile submarines to strengthen second-strike capabilities. For European partners such as Poland, participation in discussions on extended deterrence remains at an early stage, yet the debate illustrates a broader shift in European strategic thinking in response to Russia’s nuclear rhetoric and an increasingly uncertain security environment.

Authors: Kacper Kremiec, Aleksander Olech

Europe sidelined in Washington

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travelled to Washington intending to focus discussions on Ukraine, trade tensions and the future of the transatlantic partnership. Instead, the meeting with President Donald Trump was dominated by the escalating conflict involving Iran and recent US-Israeli strikes. The shift in agenda illustrated the persistent imbalance within the transatlantic relationship, as European priorities were quickly overshadowed by Washington’s immediate strategic concerns.

Although the meeting remained cordial, the political dynamics revealed Europe’s limited ability to influence events during rapidly developing crises. Trump used the occasion to defend military actions against Iran and criticise Spain for refusing the use of its bases, while Merz was largely confined to diplomatic reassurances and private conversations regarding Ukraine. The episode underscored a broader structural problem: Europe remains deeply affected by global crises shaped in Washington, yet often struggles to shape the strategic narrative itself.

Author: Jakub Bielamowicz

Spain distances itself from US policy on Iran

Spain has taken a clear stance against the recent US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez emphasising the importance of international law and warning against repeating the mistakes of past conflicts. In a televised address, Sánchez rejected the notion that global crises should be resolved primarily through military force, framing Madrid’s position as a broader opposition to unilateral military action.

The decision not to allow US forces to use Spanish bases for operations against Iran has already triggered tensions with Washington. President Donald Trump criticised Spain’s stance and threatened economic retaliation, including the possibility of trade restrictions or tariffs. The dispute highlights a widening political gap within the transatlantic alliance and raises questions about Spain’s future role within NATO should tensions with the United States continue to escalate.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Greenland and the strategic race for critical minerals

Greenland has increasingly become a focal point in global competition over critical raw materials essential for modern technologies. Beneath its vast ice sheet lie significant deposits of rare earth elements, resources crucial for the production of advanced electronics, renewable energy systems and modern military equipment. While some political narratives emphasise direct geopolitical confrontation in the Arctic, the real contest is largely economic and technological. China has focused less on visible military presence and more on building influence across global supply chains, particularly in the processing and refining of rare earth materials.

Despite its resource potential, turning Greenland into a major mining hub remains highly challenging. Harsh environmental conditions, limited infrastructure, strict environmental regulations and political sensitivities within Greenlandic society all complicate large-scale extraction projects. As a result, the strategic significance of the island lies not only in the resources beneath the ice but also in the broader competition between major powers to control supply chains, secure technological advantages and shape the future balance of influence in the Arctic.

Author: Mateusz Gibała

The raw materials behind modern military power

Modern military power depends not only on technology and industrial capacity but also on access to a narrow group of critical raw materials. Substances such as cobalt, rare earth elements, lithium, tungsten or graphite form the hidden foundation of contemporary weapons systems. They enable high-temperature jet engines, advanced electronics, stealth technologies and the batteries powering increasingly autonomous military platforms. Without these materials, many of the systems that define modern warfare—from fighter aircraft to missile guidance and communication networks—would simply cease to function.

The growing dependence on such resources exposes a strategic vulnerability for NATO and its partners. Many of these materials are geographically concentrated or processed in countries outside the Western alliance, creating potential bottlenecks in times of crisis or prolonged conflict. As a result, military strength is increasingly tied not only to industrial production but also to secure supply chains and access to raw materials. The debate around NATO’s materials list therefore reflects a broader recognition that the sustainability of modern warfare depends as much on resource security as on technological superiority.

Author: Sylwia Kubica