- WIADOMOŚCI
How war zones redefined global energy exports in 2026
As the conflict in the Middle East continues, the oil market tries to adapt. As of now, nearly half of global oil exports flow from war zones.
According to Reuters’ calculations, almost half the world’s oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026. Current disruptions have eclipsed all previously perceived energy crises. The war in the Middle East, which started half a year ago, has triggered the largest oil supply crisis to date and there is no clear end in sight.
The Middle East is not the only region that exports oil and suffers from an ongoing war. We’ve now entered the fifth year of the Russo-Ukrainian war. With Ukraine’s long-range strikes into Russia’s territory and on the Azov and Black Seas, oil exports have also disrupted, including those from nearby states like Kazakhstan. Moscow’s refining network is being targeted, some of it as far as Omsk, about 2,700 kilometres away from the Ukrainian-held territory. The ongoing conflict in Libya and US restrictions on Venezuela also make the numbers add up.
Reuters summed up the oil exports of the aforementioned countries affected by wars, based on International Energy Agency data. It concluded that those states produced about 45 million oil barrels per day based on 2025 output, which accounts for more than 43% of the total global supply of that resource.
According to analysts’ estimates, around 5 to 7 million barrels per day are being exported from the Persian Gulf now. Some of them are being re-routed to the Red Sea; however, July attacks near Egypt’s Suez Canal prove that the risk of oil flow disruption remains high.
Due to successful Ukrainian attacks, Russian residents experience fuel shortages. The state itself has banned gasoline and diesel exports, further pressuring the global fuel markets. Other countries must also deal with soaring fuel prices; in the US, diesel has climbed to record levels despite refineries running at peak capacity. In response to the war in the Middle East, the IEA decided to release record volumes from emergency stockpiles in order to cushion the shock related to oil shortages. Most of the releases are now complete; however, global inventories continue to decline.
